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Using Disaster Outcomes to Validate Components of Social Vulnerability to Floods: Flood Deaths and Property Damage across the USA

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  • Beth Tellman

    (The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
    Cloud to Street, New York, NY 112131, USA)

  • Cody Schank

    (Dell EMC, Austin, TX 78759, USA)

  • Bessie Schwarz

    (Cloud to Street, New York, NY 112131, USA)

  • Peter D. Howe

    (Department of Environment and Society, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84321, USA)

  • Alex de Sherbinin

    (Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA)

Abstract

Social vulnerability indicators seek to identify populations susceptible to hazards based on aggregated sociodemographic data. Vulnerability indices are rarely validated with disaster outcome data at broad spatial scales, making it difficult to develop effective national scale strategies to mitigate loss for vulnerable populations. This paper validates social vulnerability indicators using two flood outcomes: death and damage. Regression models identify sociodemographic factors associated with variation in outcomes from 11,629 non-coastal flood events in the USA (2008–2012), controlling for flood intensity using stream gauge data. We compare models with (i) socioeconomic variables, (ii) the composite social vulnerability index (SoVI), and (iii) flood intensity variables only. The SoVI explains a larger portion of the variance in death (AIC = 2829) and damage (R 2 = 0.125) than flood intensity alone (death—AIC = 2894; damage—R 2 = 0.089), and models with individual sociodemographic factors perform best (death—AIC = 2696; damage—R 2 = 0.229). Socioeconomic variables correlated with death (rural counties with a high proportion of elderly and young) differ from those related to property damage (rural counties with high percentage of Black, Hispanic and Native American populations below the poverty line). Results confirm that social vulnerability influences death and damage from floods in the USA. Model results indicate that social vulnerability models related to specific hazards and outcomes perform better than generic social vulnerability indices (e.g., SoVI) in predicting non-coastal flood death and damage. Hazard- and outcome-specific indices could be used to better direct efforts to ameliorate flood death and damage towards the people and places that need it most. Future validation studies should examine other flood outcomes, such as evacuation, migration and health, across scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Beth Tellman & Cody Schank & Bessie Schwarz & Peter D. Howe & Alex de Sherbinin, 2020. "Using Disaster Outcomes to Validate Components of Social Vulnerability to Floods: Flood Deaths and Property Damage across the USA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-28, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:15:p:6006-:d:390175
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    2. J. Connor Darlington & Niko Yiannakoulias & Amin Elshorbagy, 2022. "Changes in social vulnerability to flooding: a quasi-experimental analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2487-2509, April.
    3. repec:thr:techub:10021:y:2021:i:1:p:809-819 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Shingirai Mugambiwa & Jabulani Makhubele, 2021. "Anthropogenic flash floods and climate change in rural Zimbabwe: Impacts and options for adaptation," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 21(1), pages 809-819, July.

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