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Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Xu

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaodong Ming

    (School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK)

  • Yunjia Ma

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xinhang Zhang

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Peijun Shi

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Li Zhuo

    (Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China)

  • Bingqiang Lu

    (Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanning 530007, China)

Abstract

Due to their complexity, hazard interactions are often neglected in current studies of multi-hazard risk assessment. As a result, the assessment results are qualitative or semi-quantitative and are difficult to use in regional risk management. In this paper, the crop loss risk due to heavy rain and strong wind in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China was quantitatively assessed, based on the joint return periods of these hazards and a vulnerability surface. The joint return period is obtained with a copula function based on the marginal distribution of each hazard. The vulnerability is fitted by considering the joint hazard intensity, the sown area of crops, elevation, and GDP per capita. The results show that counties with a high value of joint hazard probability are clustered in the southeast coastal area and that the value gradually decreases from south to north and from east to west. The multi-hazard risk has a similar pattern, with a large value in the southeast coastal area and a low value in the northwest. The proposed method can be used for quantitative assessment of multi-hazard risk, and the results can be used for regional disaster risk management and planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xu & Xiaodong Ming & Yunjia Ma & Xinhang Zhang & Peijun Shi & Li Zhuo & Bingqiang Lu, 2019. "Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:922-:d:204995
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Ordaz, 2015. "A simple probabilistic model to combine losses arising from the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 389-396, March.
    2. Melanie Kappes & Margreth Keiler & Kirsten Elverfeldt & Thomas Glade, 2012. "Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1925-1958, November.
    3. Baoyin Liu & Yim Siu & Gordon Mitchell & Wei Xu, 2013. "Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 2039-2055, December.
    4. Ning Li & Xueqin Liu & Wei Xie & Jidong Wu & Peng Zhang, 2013. "The Return Period Analysis of Natural Disasters with Statistical Modeling of Bivariate Joint Probability Distribution," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 134-145, January.
    5. repec:wbk:wbpubs:7376 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Fangtian Liu & Erqi Xu & Hongqi Zhang, 2025. "Constructing vulnerability curves considering mitigation capacity to enhance the predictive ability of disaster losses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(9), pages 10225-10243, May.
    2. Fei Su & Jiaqi Luo & Hang Liu & Lei Tong & Yuan Li, 2022. "Assessment and Promotion Strategy of Rural Resilience in Yangtze River Delta Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, April.

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