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A simple probabilistic model to combine losses arising from the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards

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  • Mario Ordaz

Abstract

A simple model is presented to combine, using a probabilistic approach, the losses arising from several hazards that are triggered simultaneously by the same event. The merits of the model are presented, demonstrating the intuitive appeal of this combination rule. Assuming that the losses due to individual hazards are conditionally independent random variables with known mean and variance, expressions are given to compute the mean and variance of the combined loss. Finally, an approximate method is given to construct the probability distribution of this combined loss. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Ordaz, 2015. "A simple probabilistic model to combine losses arising from the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 389-396, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:1:p:389-396
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1495-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. Velásquez & O. Cardona & M. Mora & L. Yamin & M. Carreño & A. Barbat, 2014. "Hybrid loss exceedance curve (HLEC) for disaster risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 455-479, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Xu & Xiaodong Ming & Yunjia Ma & Xinhang Zhang & Peijun Shi & Li Zhuo & Bingqiang Lu, 2019. "Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga & Sebastian Henao & Gabriel A. Bernal & Omar-Darío Cardona, 2018. "Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales, Colombia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 5-24, September.

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