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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Kristian Näschen

    (Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany)

  • Bernd Diekkrüger

    (Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany)

  • Mariele Evers

    (Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany)

  • Britta Höllermann

    (Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany)

  • Stefanie Steinbach

    (Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
    Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Hengelosestraat 99, 7514 AE Enschede, The Netherlands)

  • Frank Thonfeld

    (German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), German Aerospace Center (DLR), Münchener Strasse 20, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
    Department of Remote Sensing, University of Würzburg, Oswald-Külpe-Str. 86, 97074 Würzburg, Germany)

Abstract

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristian Näschen & Bernd Diekkrüger & Mariele Evers & Britta Höllermann & Stefanie Steinbach & Frank Thonfeld, 2019. "The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-28, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:24:p:7083-:d:296485
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Erasto Benedict Mukama & Estifanos Addisu Yimer & Winfred Baptist Mbungu & Stefaan Dondeyne & Ann Griensven, 2025. "Evaluating the standardized and threshold based drought indices for historical drought detection in the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(10), pages 12243-12273, June.
    3. Maysoon A A Osman & Elfatih M Abdel-Rahman & Joshua Orungo Onono & Lydia A Olaka & Muna M Elhag & Marian Adan & Henri E Z Tonnang, 2023. "Mapping, intensities and future prediction of land use/land cover dynamics using google earth engine and CA- artificial neural network model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(7), pages 1-28, July.
    4. Jeong-Yun Gu & Jong-Won Lee & Sang-Woo Lee & Yujin Park & Se-Rin Park, 2025. "Enhancing Stream Ecosystems Through Riparian Vegetation Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Katharina Proswitz & Mamkwe Claudia Edward & Mariele Evers & Felister Mombo & Alexander Mpwaga & Kristian Näschen & Jennifer Sesabo & Britta Höllermann, 2021. "Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-27, June.
    6. Ankit Tyagi & Neha Gupta & Reet Kamal Tiwari & Naveen James & Sagar Rohidas Chavan, 2025. "Determining the impact of anthropogenic activities and climate change on landslide susceptibility for the Himalayan region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(5), pages 5239-5265, March.
    7. Motuma Shiferaw Regasa & Michael Nones, 2022. "Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Ethiopian Fincha Sub-Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Britta Höllermann & Kristian Näschen & Naswiru Tibanyendela & Julius Kwesiga & Mariele Evers, 2021. "Dynamics of Human–Water Interactions in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania: Insights from Farmers’ Aspirations and Decisions in an Uncertain Environment," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(4), pages 980-999, August.

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