IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i11p3199-d238189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

Author

Listed:
  • Qinwen Li

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yafeng Lu

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Yukuan Wang

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Pei Xu

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China)

Abstract

Risk assessment lays a foundation for disaster risk reduction management, especially in relation to climate change. Intensified extreme weather and climate events driven by climate change may increase related disaster susceptibility. This may interact with exposed and vulnerable socioeconomic systems to aggravate the impacts and impede progress towards regional development. In this study, debris flow risk under climate change was assessed by an integrated debris flow mechanism model and an inclusive socioeconomic status evaluation. We implemented the method for a debris flow-prone area in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Based on the analysis of three general circulation models (GCMs)—Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1 (BCC_CSM), model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System, version 5 (MIROC5, and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4)—the water–soil process model was applied to assess debris flow susceptibility. For the vulnerability evaluation, an index system established from the categories of bearing elements was analyzed by principle component analysis (PCA) methods. Our results showed that 432 to 1106 watersheds (accounting for 23% to 52% of the study area) were identified as debris-flow watersheds, although extreme rainfall would occur in most of the area from 2007 to 2060. The distributions of debris flow watersheds were concentrated in the north and transition zones of the study area. Additionally, the result of the index and PCA suggested that most areas had relatively low socioeconomic scores and such areas were considered as high-vulnerability human systems (accounts for 91%). Further analysis found that population density, road density, and gross domestic production made great contributions to vulnerability reduction. For practical mitigation strategies, we suggested that the enhancement of road density may be the most efficient risk reduction strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Qinwen Li & Yafeng Lu & Yukuan Wang & Pei Xu, 2019. "Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:11:p:3199-:d:238189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3199/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3199/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. L. Ciurean & H. Hussin & C. J. Westen & M. Jaboyedoff & P. Nicolet & L. Chen & S. Frigerio & T. Glade, 2017. "Multi-scale debris flow vulnerability assessment and direct loss estimation of buildings in the Eastern Italian Alps," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 929-957, January.
    2. P. Santi & K. Hewitt & D. VanDine & E. Barillas Cruz, 2011. "Debris-flow impact, vulnerability, and response," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(1), pages 371-402, January.
    3. Markus Stoffel & Thomas Mendlik & Michelle Schneuwly-Bollschweiler & Andreas Gobiet, 2014. "Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 141-155, January.
    4. Liu, Yansui, 2018. "Introduction to land use and rural sustainability in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-4.
    5. Thea Turkington & Alexandre Remaître & Janneke Ettema & Haydar Hussin & Cees Westen, 2016. "Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 293-305, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fei Wang & Yongqiang Cao & Shuaibang Fan & Ruoning Zhang, 2022. "Study on the Identification and Classification of Key Influencing Factors of Debris-Flow-Prone Areas in Liaoning Province Based on Self-organizing Clustering and Sensitivity Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Yongde Kang & Jingming Hou & Yu Tong & Baoshan Shi, 2021. "A Hydrodynamic-Based Robust Numerical Model for Debris Hazard and Risk Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiangcheng Huang & Huijuan Xu & Xingwu Duan & Xu Li & Peijia Wang, 2020. "Activity patterns and controlling factors of debris flows in the Upper Salween Alpine Valley," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1367-1383, August.
    2. Heping Shu & Jinzhu Ma & Shi Qi & Peiyuan Chen & ZiZheng Guo & Peng Zhang, 2020. "Experimental results of the impact pressure of debris flows in loess regions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3329-3356, September.
    3. Zhang, Pengyan & Yang, Dan & Qin, Mingzhou & Jing, Wenlong, 2020. "Spatial heterogeneity analysis and driving forces exploring of built-up land development intensity in Chinese prefecture-level cities and implications for future Urban Land intensive use," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Jianglin Lu & Keqiang Wang & Hongmei Liu, 2022. "Residents’ Selection Behavior of Compensation Schemes for Construction Land Reduction: Empirical Evidence from Questionnaires in Shanghai, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, December.
    5. Lü, Da & Gao, Guangyao & Lü, Yihe & Xiao, Feiyan & Fu, Bojie, 2020. "Detailed land use transition quantification matters for smart land management in drylands: An in-depth analysis in Northwest China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Qiu, Bingwen & Li, Haiwen & Tang, Zhenghong & Chen, Chongcheng & Berry, Joe, 2020. "How cropland losses shaped by unbalanced urbanization process?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Weijia Chen & Yongquan Lu & Guilin Liu, 2022. "Balancing cropland gain and desert vegetation loss: The key to rural revitalization in Xinjiang, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 1122-1145, September.
    9. Wang, Bo & Li, Fan & Feng, Shuyi & Shen, Tong, 2020. "Transfer of development rights, farmland preservation, and economic growth: a case study of Chongqing’s land quotas trading program," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Chi, Yuan & Liu, Dahai & Wang, Jing & Wang, Enkang, 2020. "Human negative, positive, and net influences on an estuarine area with intensive human activity based on land covers and ecological indices: An empirical study in Chongming Island, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    11. Xinhui Feng & Yan Li & Lu Zhang & Chuyu Xia & Er Yu & Jiayu Yang, 2022. "Carbon Metabolism in Urban “Production–Living–Ecological” Space Based on Ecological Network Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, August.
    12. Xu, Tingting & Gao, Jay & Li, Yuhua, 2019. "Machine learning-assisted evaluation of land use policies and plans in a rapidly urbanizing district in Chongqing, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Yin, Xu & Wang, Jing & Li, Yurui & Feng, Zhiming & Wang, Qianyi, 2021. "Are small towns really inefficient? A data envelopment analysis of sampled towns in Jiangsu province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Lili Guo & Yuting Song & Mengqian Tang & Jinyang Tang & Bright Senyo Dogbe & Mengying Su & Houjian Li, 2022. "Assessing the Relationship among Land Transfer, Fertilizer Usage, and PM 2.5 Pollution: Evidence from Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Liu, Yansui & Zhou, Yang, 2021. "Territory spatial planning and national governance system in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Antonín Vaishar & Milada Šťastná, 2019. "Sustainable Development of a Peripheral Mountain Region on the State Border: Case Study of Moravské Kopanice Microregion (Moravia)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-15, October.
    17. Pai Wang & Mengna Qi & Yajia Liang & Xuebing Ling & Yan Song, 2019. "Examining the Relationship between Environmentally Friendly Land Use and Rural Revitalization Using a Coupling Analysis: A Case Study of Hainan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-19, November.
    18. Xinxin Fu & Xiaofeng Wang & Jitao Zhou & Jiahao Ma, 2021. "Optimizing the Production-Living-Ecological Space for Reducing the Ecosystem Services Deficit," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    19. Yu, Zhenning & She, Shuoqi & Xia, Chuyu & Luo, Jiaojiao, 2023. "How to solve the dilemma of China’s land fallow policy: Application of voluntary bidding mode in the Yangtze River Delta of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Xia, Min & Zhang, Yanyuan & Zhang, Zihong & Liu, Jingjie & Ou, Weixin & Zou, Wei, 2020. "Modeling agricultural land use change in a rapid urbanizing town: Linking the decisions of government, peasant households and enterprises," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:11:p:3199-:d:238189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.