IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i3p484-d1332348.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fractional-Differential Models of the Time Series Evolution of Socio-Dynamic Processes with Possible Self-Organization and Memory

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Zhukov

    (Institute of Radio Electronics and Informatics, MIREA—Russian Technological University, 78 Vernadsky Avenue, 119454 Moscow, Russia)

  • Konstantin Otradnov

    (Institute of Radio Electronics and Informatics, MIREA—Russian Technological University, 78 Vernadsky Avenue, 119454 Moscow, Russia)

  • Vladimir Kalinin

    (Department of Applied Informatics and Intelligent Systems in the Humanitarian Sphere, Patrice Lumumba Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, 6 Miklukho-Maklaya Str., 117198 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This article describes the solution of two problems. First, based on the fractional diffusion equation, a boundary problem with arbitrary values of derivative indicators was formulated and solved, describing more general cases than existing solutions. Secondly, from the consideration of the probability schemes of transitions between states of the process, which can be observed in complex systems, a fractional-differential equation of the telegraph type with multiples is obtained (in time: β , 2 β , 3 β , … and state: α , 2 α , 3 α , …) using orders of fractional derivatives and its analytical solution for one particular boundary problem is considered. In solving edge problems, the Fourier method was used. This makes it possible to represent the solution in the form of a nested time series (one in time t, the second in state x), each of which is a function of the Mittag-Leffler type. The eigenvalues of the Mittag-Leffler function for describing states can be found using boundary conditions and the Fourier coefficient based on the initial condition and orthogonality conditions of the eigenfunctions. An analysis of the characteristics of time series of changes in the emotional color of users’ comments on published news in online mass media and the electoral campaigns of the US presidential elections showed that for the mathematical expectation of amplitudes of deviations of series levels from the size of the amplitude calculation interval (“sliding window”), a root dependence of fractional degree was observed; for dispersion, a power law with a fractional index greater than 1.5 was observed; and the behavior of the excess showed the presence of so-called “heavy tails”. The obtained results indicate that time series have unsteady non-locality, both in time and state. This provides the rationale for using differential equations with partial fractional derivatives to describe time series dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Zhukov & Konstantin Otradnov & Vladimir Kalinin, 2024. "Fractional-Differential Models of the Time Series Evolution of Socio-Dynamic Processes with Possible Self-Organization and Memory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:3:p:484-:d:1332348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/3/484/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/3/484/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Metzler, Ralf & Glöckle, Walter G. & Nonnenmacher, Theo F., 1994. "Fractional model equation for anomalous diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 13-24.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viacheslav V. Saenko & Vladislav N. Kovalnogov & Ruslan V. Fedorov & Dmitry A. Generalov & Ekaterina V. Tsvetova, 2022. "Numerical Method for Solving of the Anomalous Diffusion Equation Based on a Local Estimate of the Monte Carlo Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Fernando Alcántara-López & Carlos Fuentes & Rodolfo G. Camacho-Velázquez & Fernando Brambila-Paz & Carlos Chávez, 2022. "Spatial Fractional Darcy’s Law on the Diffusion Equation with a Fractional Time Derivative in Single-Porosity Naturally Fractured Reservoirs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-11, July.
    3. Razminia, Kambiz & Razminia, Abolhassan & Baleanu, Dumitru, 2019. "Fractal-fractional modelling of partially penetrating wells," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 135-142.
    4. Saenko, Viacheslav V., 2016. "The influence of the finite velocity on spatial distribution of particles in the frame of Levy walk model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 765-782.
    5. Scalas, Enrico, 2006. "The application of continuous-time random walks in finance and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 362(2), pages 225-239.
    6. Pavlos, G.P. & Karakatsanis, L.P. & Iliopoulos, A.C. & Pavlos, E.G. & Xenakis, M.N. & Clark, Peter & Duke, Jamie & Monos, D.S., 2015. "Measuring complexity, nonextensivity and chaos in the DNA sequence of the Major Histocompatibility Complex," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 188-209.
    7. Claudia A. Pérez-Pinacho & Cristina Verde, 2022. "A Note on an Integral Transformation for the Equivalence between a Fractional and Integer Order Diffusion Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, February.
    8. Vyacheslav Svetukhin, 2021. "Nucleation Controlled by Non-Fickian Fractional Diffusion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-11, March.
    9. Essex, Christopher & Schulzky, Christian & Franz, Astrid & Hoffmann, Karl Heinz, 2000. "Tsallis and Rényi entropies in fractional diffusion and entropy production," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 299-308.
    10. Duan, Jun-Sheng & Wang, Zhong & Liu, Yu-Lu & Qiu, Xiang, 2013. "Eigenvalue problems for fractional ordinary differential equations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 46-53.
    11. Lenzi, M.K. & Lenzi, E.K. & Guilherme, L.M.S. & Evangelista, L.R. & Ribeiro, H.V., 2022. "Transient anomalous diffusion in heterogeneous media with stochastic resetting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    12. Satin, Seema E. & Parvate, Abhay & Gangal, A.D., 2013. "Fokker–Planck equation on fractal curves," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 30-35.
    13. Qureshi, Sania & Bonyah, Ebenezer & Shaikh, Asif Ali, 2019. "Classical and contemporary fractional operators for modeling diarrhea transmission dynamics under real statistical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    14. Paradisi, Paolo & Cesari, Rita & Mainardi, Francesco & Tampieri, Francesco, 2001. "The fractional Fick's law for non-local transport processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 130-142.
    15. Lenzi, E.K. & Mendes, R.S. & Gonçalves, G. & Lenzi, M.K. & da Silva, L.R., 2006. "Fractional diffusion equation and Green function approach: Exact solutions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 215-226.
    16. Gorenflo, Rudolf & Mainardi, Francesco & Moretti, Daniele & Pagnini, Gianni & Paradisi, Paolo, 2002. "Fractional diffusion: probability distributions and random walk models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 305(1), pages 106-112.
    17. Razminia, Kambiz & Razminia, Abolhassan & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2015. "Pressure responses of a vertically hydraulic fractured well in a reservoir with fractal structure," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 257(C), pages 374-380.
    18. Roscani, Sabrina D. & Bollati, Julieta & Tarzia, Domingo A., 2018. "A new mathematical formulation for a phase change problem with a memory flux," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 340-347.
    19. Krasowska, Monika & Strzelewicz, Anna & Rybak, Aleksandra & Dudek, Gabriela & Cieśla, Michał, 2016. "Structure and transport properties of ethylcellulose membranes with different types and granulation of magnetic powder," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 241-250.
    20. Rui, Weiguo, 2018. "Idea of invariant subspace combined with elementary integral method for investigating exact solutions of time-fractional NPDEs," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 158-171.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:3:p:484-:d:1332348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.