Spatiotemporal Variations and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin

Accurate assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) is crucial for sustainable environmental management, especially in regions with high ecological sensitivity and significant socioeconomic importance. This study focuses on the Yellow River Basin and integrates the land-use transition matrix, equivalent factor method, ecosystem service trade-off and synergy analysis, and the optimized parameters geographical detector to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of ESV from 2000 to 2023. The results show that (1) cropland and grassland are the main land-use types in the Yellow River Basin, and during rapid urbanization, the expansion of construction land mainly comes at the expense of cropland and grassland. (2) the total ESV in the basin has steadily increased, with grassland as the primary contributor among land types; regulating services, particularly hydrological regulation, are the core ecosystem services in terms of supply, regulation, support, and cultural functions. (3) High-ESV areas in the eastern and central parts of the basin have expanded over time, exhibiting a spatial pattern of higher values in the west and lower in the east, distributed mainly along the river, with clustering effects gradually weakening. (4) Ecosystem services demonstrated predominantly synergistic relationships, suggesting potential for integrated ecosystem management. (5) Population density, DEM, mean annual temperature, and slope are the dominant factors influencing spatial variation in ESV, with the combined effects of topography and climate significantly enhancing the explanation of ESV heterogeneity. This study deepens the understanding of the evolutionary mechanisms of ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin and provides scientific support and decision-making references for regional ecological compensation mechanisms, optimized land resource allocation, and watershed ecosystem management.