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A Prediction–Interaction–Driving Framework for Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study of Zoigê Plateau

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  • Wanting Zeng

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Li He

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Zhengwei He

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Yang Zhao

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Yan Yuan

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Jintai Pang

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    College of Earth and Planetary, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Jiahua Zhao

    (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    College of Earth and Planetary, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

Abstract

Under climate change and human activities, ecosystem service (ES) research lacks systematic approaches and scientific depth. This study develops a comprehensive framework integrating advanced models to predict ESs, analyze interactions, identify key drivers, and assess spatial effects on the Zoigê Plateau. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020 and across three 2040 scenarios, water conservation (WC) improves, while carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) decline, leading to overall ES degradation. Core ES areas face rising degradation risks from 9% to 29% under increasing environmental stress (SSP119 to SSP585). (2) ES importance follows HQ > CS > SC > WC, with bivariate interactions outperforming single-factor effects. Future scenarios show weakened interactions, correlating with higher ecological stress, indicating ES stability risks. (3) Land use (>40% explanatory power) is the primary driver, while urban expansion, slope, evapotranspiration, and precipitation contribute (6–12%). (4) ES drivers showed weak spatial patterns from 2000 to 2020 but became more stable under future scenarios, suggesting stronger environmental control. This study provides a methodological paradigm for ES analysis and supports ecological planning in alpine wetland–grassland regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wanting Zeng & Li He & Zhengwei He & Yang Zhao & Yan Yuan & Jintai Pang & Jiahua Zhao, 2025. "A Prediction–Interaction–Driving Framework for Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study of Zoigê Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:441-:d:1595762
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jintai Pang & Li He & Zhengwei He & Wanting Zeng & Yan Yuan & Wenqian Bai & Jiahua Zhao, 2025. "Interactions and Driving Force of Land Cover and Ecosystem Service Before and After the Earthquake in Wenchuan County," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-23, March.

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