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Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms Considering Time-Lag and Accumulation Effects: A Case Study of Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration

Author

Listed:
  • Xi Liu

    (School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Guoming Du

    (School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Xiaodie Zhang

    (Beidou Research Institute, South China Normal University, Foshan 528225, China)

  • Xing Li

    (School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

  • Shining Lv

    (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

  • Yinghao He

    (School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China)

Abstract

The Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration (HBEY) was a crucial ecological barrier in northern China. To accurately assess the impact of climate change on vegetation growth, it is essential to consider the effects of time lag and accumulation. In this study, we used a newly proposed kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) as the metric for vegetation condition, and employed partial correlation analysis to ascertain the lag and accumulation period of vegetation response to climate by considering different scenarios (No/Lag/Acc/LagAcc) and various combinations. Moreover, we further modified the traditional residual analysis model. The results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2022, the HBEY experienced extensive and persistent greening, with a kNDVI slope of 0.0163/decade. Precipitation was identified as the dominant climatic factor influencing vegetation dynamics. (2) In HBEY, the lag effect of temperature was most distinct, particularly affecting the vegetation in cropland and grassland. The accumulation effect of precipitation was pronounced in grassland. (3) Incorporating lag and accumulation effects into models increases the explanatory power of climate impacts on vegetation dynamics by 6.95% compared to traditional residual models. Our findings hold essential implications for regional ecological regulation and climate change response research.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi Liu & Guoming Du & Xiaodie Zhang & Xing Li & Shining Lv & Yinghao He, 2024. "Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms Considering Time-Lag and Accumulation Effects: A Case Study of Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:9:p:1337-:d:1462114
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    1. Yunfei Ma & Xiaobo He & Donghui Shangguan & Da Li & Shuang Dai & Beibei He & Qin Yang, 2025. "Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Vegetation Dynamics Considering Time Lag and Accumulation Effects: A Case Study in the Three Rivers Source Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-22, March.

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