IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v12y2023i4p923-d1128117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land Use Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Author

Listed:
  • Nansha Sun

    (College of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China)

  • Qiong Chen

    (College of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
    Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China)

  • Fenggui Liu

    (College of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
    Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China)

  • Qiang Zhou

    (College of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China
    Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining 810008, China)

  • Wenxin He

    (College of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China)

  • Yuanyuan Guo

    (College of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China)

Abstract

The land use and land cover pattern of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is an important basis for the structure and function of the QTP ecological barrier. It is of great significance to simulate the land use pattern and landscape ecological risk of the QTP under future scenarios for the construction of the QTP barrier area and to promote the sustainable use of land resources. The QTP was selected as the study area. Based on the spatial pattern of land use in 2010 and 2020, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use patterns of the QTP in 2030 under the two scenarios of natural development and ecological conservation. The landscape ecological risk index was constructed to evaluate the past, present, and future landscape ecological risk of the QTP. The natural break point method was used to divide the landscape ecological risk index into five levels: lower ecological risk, low ecological risk, medium ecological risk, high ecological risk, and higher ecological risk. The results showed that: (1) Under the natural development scenario, the area of cropland, forestland, grassland, and unused land decreased continuously, while the areas of water and built-up land increased gradually. Under the ecological conservation scenario, the areas of forestland and grassland increased by 130 km 2 and 2293 km 2 , respectively, compared with the natural development scenario. (2) Under the natural development scenario, the overall ecological risk of the QTP increased from 2010 to 2030, which showed that the proportions of lower ecological risk area decreased, while the proportion of medium and high ecological risk area increased. Under the ecological conservation scenario, compared with the natural development scenario, the area of lower, low, and high ecological risk increased by 4044 km 2 , 2484 km 2 , and 6401 km 2 , respectively, while the areas of medium and higher ecological risk decreased by 6333 km 2 and 6597 km 2 , respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Nansha Sun & Qiong Chen & Fenggui Liu & Qiang Zhou & Wenxin He & Yuanyuan Guo, 2023. "Land Use Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:4:p:923-:d:1128117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/4/923/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/4/923/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xuebin Zhang & Litang Yao & Jun Luo & Wenjuan Liang, 2022. "Exploring Changes in Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk in Key Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative Countries," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Chunfen Zeng & Jun He & Qingqing He & Yuqing Mao & Boya Yu, 2022. "Assessment of Land Use Pattern and Landscape Ecological Risk in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, Southwestern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Jane Qiu, 2008. "China: The third pole," Nature, Nature, vol. 454(7203), pages 393-396, July.
    4. Yongkang Zhou & Xiaoyao Zhang & Hu Yu & Qingqing Liu & Linlin Xu, 2021. "Land Use-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Service Values and Simulation of Future Scenarios: A Case Study of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Zhi Qu & Yonghua Zhao & Manya Luo & Lei Han & Shuyuan Yang & Lei Zhang, 2022. "The Effect of the Human Footprint and Climate Change on Landscape Ecological Risks: A Case Study of the Loess Plateau, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dongchuan Wang & Hua Chai & Zhiheng Wang & Kangjian Wang & Hongyi Wang & Hui Long & Jianshe Gao & Aoze Wei & Sirun Wang, 2022. "Dynamic Monitoring and Ecological Risk Analysis of Lake Inundation Areas in Tibetan Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Xueqing Wang & Zhongyi Ding & Shaoliang Zhang & Huping Hou & Zanxu Chen & Qinyu Wu, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Multivariate Correlation Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Ecological Risk in Areas of Overlapped Cropland and Coal Resources in the Eastern Plains, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Lei Zhao & Zhengtao Shi & Guangxiong He & Li He & Wenfei Xi & Qin Jiang, 2023. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Terrain Gradients in Yuanmou Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Yali Zhong & Shuqing Chen & Haihua Mo & Weiwen Wang & Pengfei Yu & Xuemei Wang & Nima Chuduo & Bian Ba, 2022. "Contribution of urban expansion to surface warming in high-altitude cities of the Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-22, November.
    5. Muhammad Arfan & Jewell Lund & Daniyal Hassan & Maaz Saleem & Aftab Ahmad, 2019. "Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Flow Variability of the Indus River," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Qianhan Wu & Kai Liu & Chunqiao Song & Jida Wang & Linghong Ke & Ronghua Ma & Wensong Zhang & Hang Pan & Xinyuan Deng, 2018. "Remote Sensing Detection of Vegetation and Landform Damages by Coal Mining on the Tibetan Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    7. Xinjun He & Anyi Huang & Jianzhong Yan & Hong Zhou & Ya Wu & Liang Emlyn Yang & Basanta Paudel, 2023. "Smallholders’ climate change adaptation strategies on the eastern Tibetan Plateau," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 641-667, August.
    8. Wang, Weijun & Zhao, Xueyan & Cao, Jianjun & Li, Hua & Zhang, Qin, 2020. "Barriers and requirements to climate change adaptation of mountainous rural communities in developing countries: The case of the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Dongchuan Wang & Kangjian Wang & Zhiheng Wang & Hongkui Fan & Hua Chai & Hongyi Wang & Hui Long & Jianshe Gao & Jiacheng Xu, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Mechanism of Traffic Dominance in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Jiawei Wu & Wei Sun, 2023. "Regional Integration and Sustainable Development in the Yangtze River Delta, China: Towards a Conceptual Framework and Research Agenda," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, February.
    11. Kamal Abdelrahim Mohamed Shuka & Wang Ke & Mohammad Sohail Nazar & Ghali Abdullahi Abubakar & AmirReza Shahtahamssebi, 2022. "Impact of Hydrological Infrastructure Projects on Land Use/Cover and Socioeconomic Development in Arid Regions—Evidence from the Upper Atbara and Setit Dam Complex, Kassala, Eastern Sudan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Munkhnasan Lamchin & Woo-Kyun Lee & Sonam Wangyel Wang, 2022. "Multi-Temporal Analysis of Past and Future Land-Cover Changes of the Third Pole," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Haidong Li & Yingkui Li & Yuanyun Gao & Changxin Zou & Shouguang Yan & Jixi Gao, 2016. "Human Impact on Vegetation Dynamics around Lhasa, Southern Tibetan Plateau, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, November.
    14. Zhenjie Dong & Lin Hou & Qi Ruan, 2023. "Effect of Elevation Gradient on Carbon Pools in a Juniperus przewalskii Kom. Forest in Qinghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-13, April.
    15. Bo Zhang & Wei Zhou, 2021. "Spatial–Temporal Characteristics of Precipitation and Its Relationship with Land Use/Cover Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Junko Mochizuki & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2011. "Environmental Security and its Implications for China’s Foreign Relations," Working Papers 2011.30, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Ting Ma & Brent Swallow & J. Marc Foggin & Linsheng Zhong & Weiguo Sang, 2023. "Co-management for sustainable development and conservation in Sanjiangyuan National Park and the surrounding Tibetan nomadic pastoralist areas," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Xingchuan Gao & Tao Li & Xiaoshu Cao, 2019. "Spatial Fairness and Changes in Transport Infrastructure in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Area from 1976 to 2016," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, January.
    19. Haorui Zhang & Shaowei Li & Guangyu Zhang & Gang Fu, 2020. "Response of Soil Microbial Communities to Warming and Clipping in Alpine Meadows in Northern Tibet," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    20. Yuhao Jiang & Baolin Li & Yecheng Yuan & Qingling Sun & Tao Zhang & Yan Liu & Ying Li & Rui Li & Fei Li, 2021. "Trends in Flowering Phenology of Herbaceous Plants and Its Response to Precipitation and Snow Cover on the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau from 1983 to 2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-21, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:4:p:923-:d:1128117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.