The Imprint of Built-Up Land Expansion on Cropland Distribution and Productivity in Shandong Province

Grain self-sufficiency is a national food security target of China. The way that built-up land expansion impacts upon cropland loss and food provision needs to be explored in the major grain producing areas. Shandong Province is an important agricultural food production region, which is also experiencing rapidly urbanizing. Here we assessed the spatiotemporal distribution of cropland loss due to built-up land expansion and landscape dynamics of cropland during 2000–2020, by using 30 m resolution land cover data. We also analyzed the potential yield change influenced by cropland loss. The results showed that the area of built-up land expanded by 5199 km 2 from 2000–2010, and 11,949 km 2 from 2010–2020. Approximately 95% of the new built-up land was from cropland during the two stages, and the primary mode of built-up land expansion was the edge expansion. The patch density and the patch size of cropland kept increasing and decreasing, respectively, and the aggregation index kept decreasing from 2000 to 2020, indicating increased cropland fragmentation. The proportion of occupied cropland with potential yield greater than 7500 kg/ha was 25% and 37% during the former and the latter period. Thus, higher quality cropland was encroached in the recent period. The findings could provide meaningful implications for making sustainable land use development strategies in the study area and other similar regions.