Exploring Long-Term Clean Energy Transition Pathways in Ghana Using an Open-Source Optimization Approach

Access to clean and sustainable energy technologies is critical for all nations, particularly developing countries in Africa. Ghana has committed to ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, aiming for 10% and 20% variable renewable energy integration by 2030 and 2070, respectively. This study explores potential pathways for Ghana to achieve its renewable energy production targets amidst a growing energy demand. An open-source energy modelling tool was used to assess four scenarios accounting for current policies and additional alternatives to pursue energy transition goals. The scenarios include Business as Usual (BAU), Government Target (GT), Renewable Energy (REW), and Net Zero (NZ). The results indicate that total power generation and installed capacity would increase across all scenarios, with natural gas accounting for approximately 60% of total generation under the BAU scenario in 2070. Total electricity generation is projected to grow between 10 and 20 times due to different electrification levels. Greenhouse gas emission reduction is achievable with nuclear energy being critical to support renewables. Alternative pathways based on clean energy production may provide cost savings of around USD 11–14 billion compared to a Business as Usual case. The findings underscore the necessity of robust policies and regulatory frameworks to support this transition, providing insights applicable to other developing countries with similar energy profiles. This study proposes a unique contextualized open-source modelling framework for a data-constrained, lower–middle-income country, offering a replicable approach for similar contexts in Sub-Saharan Africa. Its novelty also extended towards contributing to the knowledge of energy system modelling, with nuclear energy playing a crucial role in meeting future demand and achieving the country’s objectives under the Paris Agreement.