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Ground Motion Prediction of High-Energy Mining Seismic Events: A Bootstrap Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Bańka

    (Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, Akademicka 2A, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland)

  • Adam Lurka

    (Laboratory of Mining Geophysics, Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarkow 1, 40-166 Katowice, Poland)

  • Łukasz Szuła

    (Polish Mining Group, Powstancow 30, 40-039 Katowice, Poland)

Abstract

Induced seismicity has been a serious problem for many coal mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin in Poland for many decades. The occurring mining tremors of the rock mass generate seismic vibrations that cause concern to the local population and in some rare cases lead to partial damage to buildings on the surface. The estimation of peak ground acceleration values caused by high energy mining seismic tremors is an important part of seismic hazard assessment in mining areas. A specially designed bootstrapping procedure has been applied to estimate the ground motion prediction model and makes it possible to calculate the confidence intervals of these peak ground acceleration values with no assumptions about the statistical distribution of the recorded seismic data. Monte Carlo sampling with the replacement for 132 seismic records measured for mining seismic tremors exceeding 150 mm/s 2 have been performed to estimate the mean peak ground acceleration values and the corresponding upper limits of 95% confidence intervals. The specially designed bootstrap procedure and obtained ground motion prediction model reflect much better the observed PGA values and therefore provide more accurate PGA estimators compared to the GMPE model from multiple regression analysis. The bootstrap analysis of recorded peak ground acceleration values of high-energy mining tremors provides significant information on the level of seismic hazard on the surface infrastructure. A new tool has been proposed that allows for more reliable determination of PGA estimators and identification in the areas in coal mines that are prone to high-energy seismic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Bańka & Adam Lurka & Łukasz Szuła, 2023. "Ground Motion Prediction of High-Energy Mining Seismic Events: A Bootstrap Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:10:p:4075-:d:1146358
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zheng-yi Wang & Lin-ming Dou & Gui-feng Wang, 2018. "Mechanism Analysis of Roadway Rockbursts Induced by Dynamic Mining Loading and Its Application," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Paweł Boroń & Joanna Maria Dulińska & Dorota Jasińska, 2020. "Impact of High Energy Mining-Induced Seismic Shocks from Different Mining Activity Regions on a Multiple-Support Road Viaduct," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-25, August.
    3. Vincenzo Convertito & Hossein Ebrahimian & Ortensia Amoroso & Fatemeh Jalayer & Raffaella De Matteis & Paolo Capuano, 2021. "Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Analysis for Induced Seismicity: The Case of St Gallen (Switzerland), Geothermal Field," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Zhenlei Li & Shengquan He & Dazhao Song & Xueqiu He & Linming Dou & Jianqiang Chen & Xudong Liu & Panfei Feng, 2021. "Microseismic Temporal-Spatial Precursory Characteristics and Early Warning Method of Rockburst in Steeply Inclined and Extremely Thick Coal Seam," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-27, February.
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