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Hot Spot Temperature and Grey Target Theory-Based Dynamic Modelling for Reliability Assessment of Transformer Oil-Paper Insulation Systems: A Practical Case Study

Author

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  • Lefeng Cheng

    (College of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China
    Guangdong Key Laboratory of Clean Energy Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China)

  • Tao Yu

    (College of Electric Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China
    Guangdong Key Laboratory of Clean Energy Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China)

  • Guoping Wang

    (State Grid Huaian Power Supply Company, Huaian 223002, China)

  • Bo Yang

    (Faculty of Electric Power Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China)

  • Lv Zhou

    (Electrical & Computer Engineering, The University of Auckland, Auckland1142, New Zealand)

Abstract

This paper develops a novel dynamic correction method for the reliability assessment of large oil-immersed power transformers. First, with the transformer oil-paper insulation system (TOPIS) as the target of evaluation and the winding hot spot temperature (HST) as the core point, an HST-based static ageing failure model is built according to the Weibull distribution and Arrhenius reaction law, in order to describe the transformer ageing process and calculate the winding HST for obtaining the failure rate and life expectancy of TOPIS. A grey target theory based dynamic correction model is then developed, combined with the data of Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) in power transformer oil, in order to dynamically modify the life expectancy calculated by the built static model, such that the corresponding relationship between the state grade and life expectancy correction coefficient of TOPIS can be built. Furthermore, the life expectancy loss recovery factor is introduced to correct the life expectancy of TOPIS again. Lastly, a practical case study of an operating transformer has been undertaken, in which the failure rate curve after introducing dynamic corrections can be obtained for the reliability assessment of this transformer. The curve shows a better ability of tracking the actual reliability level of transformer, thus verifying the validity of the proposed method and providing a new way for transformer reliability assessment. This contribution presents a novel model for the reliability assessment of TOPIS, in which the DGA data, as a source of information for the dynamic correction, is processed based on the grey target theory, thus the internal faults of power transformer can be diagnosed accurately as well as its life expectancy updated in time, ensuring that the dynamic assessment values can commendably track and reflect the actual operation state of the power transformers.

Suggested Citation

  • Lefeng Cheng & Tao Yu & Guoping Wang & Bo Yang & Lv Zhou, 2018. "Hot Spot Temperature and Grey Target Theory-Based Dynamic Modelling for Reliability Assessment of Transformer Oil-Paper Insulation Systems: A Practical Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:249-:d:127837
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Tenbohlen & Sebastian Coenen & Mohammad Djamali & Andreas Müller & Mohammad Hamed Samimi & Martin Siegel, 2016. "Diagnostic Measurements for Power Transformers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, May.
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    4. Nana Geng & Yong Zhang & Yixiang Sun & Yunjian Jiang & Dandan Chen, 2015. "Forecasting China’s Annual Biofuel Production Using an Improved Grey Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-20, October.
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    6. Yiyi Zhang & Jiefeng Liu & Hanbo Zheng & Hua Wei & Ruijin Liao, 2017. "Study on Quantitative Correlations between the Ageing Condition of Transformer Cellulose Insulation and the Large Time Constant Obtained from the Extended Debye Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    7. A. Dinmohammadi & M. Shafiee, 2017. "Determination of the Most Suitable Technology Transfer Strategy for Wind Turbines Using an Integrated AHP-TOPSIS Decision Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Youyuan Wang & Senlian Gong & Stanislaw Grzybowski, 2011. "Reliability Evaluation Method for Oil–Paper Insulation in Power Transformers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(9), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Chen Wang & Jie Wu & Jianzhou Wang & Weigang Zhao, 2016. "Reliability Analysis and Overload Capability Assessment of Oil-Immersed Power Transformers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ancuța-Mihaela Aciu & Claudiu-Ionel Nicola & Marcel Nicola & Maria-Cristina Nițu, 2021. "Complementary Analysis for DGA Based on Duval Methods and Furan Compounds Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Jefferson Zuñiga Balanta & Sergio Rivera & Andrés A. Romero & Gustavo Coria, 2023. "Planning and Optimizing the Replacement Strategies of Power Transformers: Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Haonan Tian & Zhongbao Wei & Sriram Vaisambhayana & Madasamy Thevar & Anshuman Tripathi & Philip Kjær, 2019. "A Coupled, Semi-Numerical Model for Thermal Analysis of Medium Frequency Transformer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Jonathan Velasco Costa & Diogo F. F. da Silva & Paulo J. Costa Branco, 2022. "Large-Power Transformers: Time Now for Addressing Their Monitoring and Failure Investigation Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-59, June.
    5. Enwen Li & Linong Wang & Bin Song & Siliang Jian, 2018. "Improved Fuzzy C-Means Clustering for Transformer Fault Diagnosis Using Dissolved Gas Analysis Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Lefeng Cheng & Tao Yu, 2018. "Dissolved Gas Analysis Principle-Based Intelligent Approaches to Fault Diagnosis and Decision Making for Large Oil-Immersed Power Transformers: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-69, April.
    7. Przemyslaw Goscinski & Zbigniew Nadolny & Andrzej Tomczewski & Ryszard Nawrowski & Tomasz Boczar, 2023. "The Influence of Heat Transfer Coefficient α of Insulating Liquids on Power Transformer Cooling Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.

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