Credit Burden and Reproductive Intentions: The Spillover Effect of Housing Programs on Fertility in Russia

The further progress of the National Demography Project requires a deeper analysis of its impact on reproductive behavior. Housing policy measures have a complex impact on various spheres of life. While improved housing conditions can contribute to higher fertility, this has been accompanied by a growth in mortgage lending among Russian families. Consequently, an unforeseen negative effect may emerge, whereby long-term and substantial financial obligations, particularly from mortgages, hinder families from having more children. This paper aims to analyze the extent to which households regard credit or mortgage obligations, lack of home ownership, and limited financial resources as reasons for postponing childbearing. The analysis examines how these obstacles have changed over a decade of active credit market development. The novelty of the research lies in considering debt burden as a factor of fertility rate decline, thereby offering a new framework for evaluating the outcomes of the national project and its associated measures. The analysis is based on microdata from surveys on the reproductive intentions of the population, conducted by Rosstat in 2012 and 2022. It is shown that in the medium-term retrospective, the constraining effect of poor housing conditions has decreased, all other things being equal, while the significance of debt burden as a factor in postponing childbearing has grown. The findings of this study may be of interest both to researchers in the field of demographic and social policy, and to decisionmakers.