Mortgage and reproductive intentions: A boost or a barrier?

This study investigates the relationship between reproductive intentions and mortgage debt among the Russian population. Using data from the “Person, family, society” telephone survey conducted in spring 2020, we estimate binary choice probit models employing instrumental variables (IV) to address potential endogeneity between the variables under consideration. An instrument for mortgage status was constructed using respondents’ attitudes toward mortgage loans. Statistical tests confirmed the validity and relevance of the chosen instrument for the main model and most subgroups. Results modeling the intention to have a child within the next three years indicate a positive correlation between mortgage debt and reproductive intentions, consistent with findings from other countries. Robustness checks were performed on subgroups stratified by number of children, gender, and age. The positive association between mortgage debt and reproductive intentions was found to hold for women, respondents under 36 years of age, and childless respondents; for other groups, mortgage debt proved to be an insignificant factor.