Factors in Intentions to Have a Third Child: What Machine Learning Analysis Reveals

An individual's reproductive trajectory can be represented as a chain of decisions about whether or not to have a child. Decision making is a time-consuming process and usually begins with the formation of intentions. Factors of intentions, as well as their subsequent implementation, differ for children of different orders. Third births are less frequently the focus of attention of researchers than first and second births. The aim of this work is to determine the factors of intentions to have a third child among men and women with two children. The empirical basis of the study is a population survey "People. Family. Society" 2023. We use machine learning methods (ensemble trees) and include in the analysis a very wide range of classifying features, consisting of demographic and socio-economic indicators, as well as value attitudes and assessments of subjective well-being. The peculiarities of the method are such that the presence and absence of a feature can have an asymmetric effect on the dependent variable. The results of the study reveal a profile of conservative attitudes that determine higher chances of being included in the class of those intending to have a third child in the next three years: a negative attitude towards the admissibility of abortion, agreement with the statement that women would like to take care of the home and children, and moderate religiosity. In addition, factors that indicate the choice of the appropriate time for the birth of a child are important, namely the age of the youngest child from 3 to 6 years, positive expectations regarding improved housing conditions, as well as the desire for the spouse to have more children as part of the couple's agreed reproductive attitude. The class of those who express a desire to have more children, but do not express specific plans for having a child (this could be either a postponement or a complete refusal to realize the desire), is of particular interest in the context of the possibilities of demographic policy. The economic profile of factors for falling into this class is determined by the agreement with the statement that in the absence of one's own home and stable work it is better to postpone having a child and – at the same time – the absence of positive expectations regarding improvement of housing conditions, the presence of some housing deprivation; the presence of consumer loans payments. Removing economic barriers may allow this category of respondents to achieve the desired number of children.