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The Long-Term Risks of Global Stock Markets

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  • Philippe Jorion

Abstract

This research investigates the persistence of investment risk across time horizon, a crucial issue in asset allocation decisions. Previous empirical results have focused mainly on US data and suffer from limited sample size in the analysis of long-horizon returns. Investigation of a longterm sample of thirty countries provides additional empirical evidence. The results are not reassuring. There is no evidence of long-term mean reversion in the expanded data sample. Downside risk is not reduced as the horizon lengthens. On the positive side, a globally diversified portfolio would have displayed much less downside risk than any single market.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Jorion, 2003. "The Long-Term Risks of Global Stock Markets," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(4), Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:fma:fmanag:jorion03
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez, Pablo & Bermejo, Vicente J., 2008. "IBEX 35: 1992-2007 - Rentabilidad y creación de valor," IESE Research Papers D/725, IESE Business School.
    2. Peter Vlaar, 2005. "Defined Benefit Pension Plans and Regulation," DNB Working Papers 063, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Stéphane Hamayon & Florence Legros, 2008. "La gestion stratégique d’actifs d’un fonds de réserve face au risque financier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 7(1), pages 205-217.
    4. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    5. Fernandez, Pablo & Bermejo, Vicente J., 2008. "Las empresas españolas en 2007 (y en el periodo 1993-2007). Rentabilidad y creación de valor," IESE Research Papers D/732, IESE Business School.
    6. Jia Wang, 2011. "Impact of investment horizon on the performance of value versus growth styles and style allocation," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(6), pages 438-446, December.
    7. Stéphane Hamayon & Florence Legros & Pradat Yannick, 2016. "Non gaussian returns: which impact on default options retirement plans? [Distribution non gaussienne des rendements : quel impact sur les options par défaut des plans d'épargne retraite ?]," Working Papers hal-03003588, HAL.
    8. Brunner, Gregory & Hinz, Richard & Rocha, Roberto, 2008. "Risk-based supervision of pension funds : a review of international experience and preliminary assessment of the first outcomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4491, The World Bank.
    9. Fernandez, Pablo & Carabias, Jose M., 2007. "Rentabilidad y creación de valor para los accionistas de las empresas españolas y del IBEX 35. 1993-2006," IESE Research Papers D/673, IESE Business School.

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