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The economic outlook for the Fifth District states in 1984 : forecasts from vector autoregression models

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  • Anatoli Kuprianov
  • William Lupoletti

Abstract

Anatoli Kuprianov and William Lupoletti employ the VAR technique to forecast the regional economy in “The Economic Outlook for Fifth District States in 1984.” The authors document the experiences of the economies of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and the District of Columbia over the past 25 years. After summarizing the differences between conventional and VAR forecasting models, they present forecasts of each state for 1984 produced by a five-variable VAR model. These forecasts suggest that the recovery of 1983 should continue through 1984 for most Fifth District states.

Suggested Citation

  • Anatoli Kuprianov & William Lupoletti, 1984. "The economic outlook for the Fifth District states in 1984 : forecasts from vector autoregression models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jan, pages 12-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1984:i:jan:p:12-23:n:v.70no.1
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    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbrichreview/rev_frbrich198401.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sahling, Leonard G & Smith, Sharon P, 1983. "Regional Wage Differentials: Has the South Risen Again?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 131-135, February.
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    1. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:38:p:3880-3890 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2010. "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 294-319, October.

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    Keywords

    Forecasting;

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