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Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!

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  • Adam Scavette

Abstract

When the economy is in the midst of a recession, even a severe one, it can be quite difficult at first to tell. For example, as the Great Recession took hold in late 2007 and early 2008, uncertainty lingered as to whether the economy had merely slowed or was already contracting. Unfortunately for policymakers, investors, and consumers ? all of whom might have been able to use such information to make better decisions regarding consumption, investment, and saving ? the recession was not officially called until December 2008. Similarly, the four prior recessions were anywhere from five to nine months old before their onset was declared.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Scavette, 2014. "Are we in a recession? The 'anxious index nowcast' knows!," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Dec.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedprr:00015
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    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/reports/research-rap/2014/are-we-in-a-recession.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
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    Cited by:

    1. O'Trakoun, John & Scavette, Adam, 2025. "A better Sahm rule? Introducing the SOS recession indicator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).

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