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The growth and volatility of state tax revenue sources in the Tenth District

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  • Alison Felix

Abstract

With the sluggishness in the national economy in 2008, many state governments are projecting budget shortfalls for the 2009 fiscal year. This trend is a concern to policymakers, as the health of a state's tax revenues is important to its economic growth and its ability to finance the public services that residents demand. State governments provide physical infrastructure, educate the future workforce, and protect people and property. In addition, in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, state and local governments employ over 16 percent of the workforce. ; While a number of factors influence the growth and volatility of state tax revenues, one key determinant is the composition of each state's tax portfolio. Governments desire a portfolio of tax instruments that allows for revenues to grow with the economy so that spending demands can be met without much change in tax rates. At the same time, stability in the revenue stream is important so that governments are not left with large financing constraints during downturns. ; Felix analyzes the impact of portfolio composition on the growth and stability of state tax revenues, particularly in the states that make up the Tenth District. She uses long-run and short-run elasticity estimates to analyze the growth and stability of each tax instrument and discusses implications for Tenth District states.

Suggested Citation

  • Alison Felix, 2008. "The growth and volatility of state tax revenue sources in the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q III), pages 63-88.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2008:i:qiii:p:63-88:n:v.93no.3
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    1. Donald Bruce & William F. Fox & M.H. Tuttle, 2006. "Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 315-341, October.
    2. Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872, Elsevier.
    3. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J., 1991. "Growth and Variability of State Individual Income and General Sales Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 44(1), pages 55-66, March.
    4. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hines, James Jr., 2002. "Taxation and economic efficiency," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 21, pages 1347-1421, Elsevier.
    5. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J., 1991. "Growth and Variability of State Individual Income and General Sales Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 44(1), pages 55-66, March.
    6. Donald Bruce & William F. Fox & M.H. Tuttle, 2006. "Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 315-341, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harvey Cutler & Martin Shields & Stephen Davies, 2018. "Can State Tax Policy Increase Economic Activity and Reduce Inequality?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 142-164, March.
    2. Fricke, Hans & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2014. "Growth and Volatility of Tax Revenues in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 114-138.
    3. Marina Malkina & Rodion Balakin, 2015. "Correlation Assessment of Tax System Risk and Profitability in the Russian Regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 241-255.
    4. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 313, November.
    5. Joshua C. Hall & Antonios M. Koumpias, 2018. "Growth And Variability Of School District Income Tax Revenues: Is Tax Base Diversification A Good Idea For School Financing?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 678-691, October.
    6. Joshua Hall & Antonis Koumpias, 2015. "The Volatility of School District Income Tax Revenues: Is Tax Base Diversification a Good Idea?," Working Papers 15-14, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    7. Raffaele Lagravinese & Paolo Liberati & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "The growth and variability of local taxes: An application to the Italian regions," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1601, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.

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