IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/y2006ijun.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions

Author

Listed:
  • John B. Carlson
  • Ben R. Craig
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • William R. Melick

Abstract

In February 1994, the FOMC began a new era in transparency, gradually building a communications apparatus that conveys information about the Committee’s decisions and expectations. Has the new apparatus improved the public’s ability to predict FOMC interest rate decisions? New research based on the prices of fed funds futures shows that over the past decade, it has, especially over horizons of two to three months.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & Patrick C. Higgins & William R. Melick, 2006. "FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:jun
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom%20and%20events/publications/economic%20commentary/2006/ec%2020060601%20fomc%20communications%20and%20the%20predictability%20of%20near%20term%20policy%20decisions%20pdf.pdf?la=en
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Chiu, 2012. "Derivatives markets, products and participants: an overview," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the workshop "Data requirements for monitoring derivative transactions", organised by the People's Bank of China and the Irving Fisher , volume 35, pages 3-11 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, June.
    3. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
    5. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    6. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2015. "The nature and impact of the market forecasting errors in the Federal funds futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 174-192.
    7. M.H. Middeldorp, 2011. "FOMC Communication Policy and the Accuracy of Fed Funds Futures," Working Papers 11-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
    8. M. Middeldorp, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility," Working Papers 11-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
    9. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-016-9380-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:jun. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (4D Library). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.