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Oil prices: backward to the future?


  • Joseph G. Haubrich
  • Patrick C. Higgins
  • Janet Miller


A useful first guess about the future spot price of a commodity is usually found in its current futures price. But it doesn’t work that way when the commodity in question is oil. This Commentary explains why the characteristics of oil, particularly the value it can offer its owner by remaining in the ground, cloud the information that oil futures prices give about future oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Haubrich & Patrick C. Higgins & Janet Miller, 2004. "Oil prices: backward to the future?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2004:i:dec

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    Cited by:

    1. Baruník, Jozef & Malinská, Barbora, 2016. "Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 366-379.
    2. Amstad, Marlene & Hildebrand, Philipp, 2005. "The oil price and monetary policy – a new paradigm," MPRA Paper 15562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. de Almeida, Pedro & Silva, Pedro D., 2009. "The peak of oil production--Timings and market recognition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1267-1276, April.

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    Petroleum industry and trade ; Futures;


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