An Empirical Study on Migration to Tokyo by the Young

This paper investigates the reasons why young people migrate from local regions to Tokyo at important stages in their life such as when entering university or starting a job. Using probit model estimations with a large nationwide microdata set consisting of individuals of both sexes born between 1966 and 1995, this is the first study in Japan to examine internal migration by the young in an empirically rigorous manner. We obtain the following three results. First, higher educational attainment was associated with a higher propensity to migrate to Tokyo, while a weaker propensity to migrate was found for younger cohorts than older ones. Second, lower wages in the prefecture of origin relative to those in Tokyo were a key determinant of migration to Tokyo at the stage of starting a job. However, focusing only on those that had already enrolled in a university in Tokyo, we found that the choice to remain and obtain a job in Tokyo was attributable to poor job opportunities in local regions. In contrast, for those who had had their first job in a local region but subsequently lived to work in Tokyo, wage differences and poor local employment chances did not show any statistical significance. Third, women had a weaker propensity, relative to men, to move to Tokyo at the first job stage, but after that they had a stronger propensity to migrate from local regions to Tokyo. The findings imply that policies to redress the unipolar concentration on Tokyo would need to reduce the disparity in wages and job opportunities between Tokyo and local regions at the stage when individuals start a job, and to ensure that investment by the young in their human capital is fully rewarded in local regions. JEL Classification Codes: R23, J61, J11