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New Dimensions of Country Risk in the Context of the Current Crisis: A Case Study for Romania and Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Liviu Deceanu
  • Mirela Pintea
  • El Thalassinos
  • Vicky Zampeta

Abstract

The attractiveness of a state regarding foreign investors, multinational banks and creditors, is closely related to country risk assessment. Most of the financial and economic rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's, Fitch, Moody's, etc., are in a position to analyze, more or less subjectively, more or less reliable, country risk developments. Rating systems that appear as important tools in decision-support are taken, in many cases non-critically, by the decision makers and used as such. The process of globalization has multiplied the country risk acceptance and successive crises with recurrence, often without advance, stressed that the assessment processes has significant shortcomings. Countries such as Greece and Romania, currently facing similar economic and social problems, are in a delicate situation. Although unlike Greece, Romania has not yet adopted the euro, a number of similarities between the two countries allow a simultaneous analysis. Recently, representatives of Standard and Poor’s announced that the declaration of support came from the European Union to Athens is a conducive factor for Greece, but this remains exposed to considerable risks; in December 2009, the Agency amend Greece in BBB + rating with negative outlook. For Romania, the passage of the attribute “negative” to “stable” is closely related to assessors of reforms agreed with IMF. Currently valued at BB +, Romania is below the recommended level for investment. In this context, the main aim of this article is to find the answer to a series of questions: Are these ratings really fair? What are the relevant variables in the analysis of states like Greece and Romania? What are the problem areas and how they can be treated? What country risk approach is appropriate for these countries?

Suggested Citation

  • Liviu Deceanu & Mirela Pintea & El Thalassinos & Vicky Zampeta, 2010. "New Dimensions of Country Risk in the Context of the Current Crisis: A Case Study for Romania and Greece," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 225-236.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xiii:y:2010:i:3:p:225-236
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    File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/10_3_p11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eleftherios Thalassinos & Theodoros Kyriazidis & John Thalassinos, 2006. "The Greek Capital Market: Caught in Between Poor Corporate Governance and Market Inefficiency," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 3-24.
    2. Valeriya Dinger & Jürgen von Hagen, 2009. "How small are the banking sectors in central and Eastern European countries really?," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 96-118, May.
    3. Konstantinos J. Liapis, 2010. "The Residual Value Models: A Framework for Business Administration," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 83-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country risk; the new international environment; rating; evaluation; budget deficit; public debt;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • M14 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Corporate Culture; Diversity; Social Responsibility
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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