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Efectos de los ingresos no reportados en el nivel y tendencia de la pobreza laboral en México

Author

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  • Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez

Abstract

En México, en los últimos años, la proporción de trabajadores remunerados que no declara ingresos ha aumentado. Si la población que no declara ingresos es una muestra aleatoria o bien la composición de la misma no cambia, esto no afectaría la tendencia en el ingreso promedio de la población o en las mediciones de pobreza y desigualdad. Sin embargo, eso no se cumple para México, ya que la proporción con ingresos inválidos y educación superior era de 20% en 2005 y para 2012 era de 39%. En este artículo, se analiza la corrección de ingresos inválidos por medio de métodos de imputación. Se encuentra que el cálculo del ingreso es robusto para los diferentes métodos. Para 2012, se encuentra que el ingreso individual promedio con imputación es mayor en 4% que el reportado, y la desigualdad con imputación es 2.4% mayor que la observada. Asimismo, mientras que el ingreso familiar per cápita reportado en el periodo 2005-2012 ha caído cerca de 15% en términos reales, el ingreso familiar per cápita verdadero no muestra cambios sustanciales. La medición oficial de la pobreza laboral indica un crecimiento de la misma de 42% a 53%, en el periodo 2005-2012; pero la pobreza con ingresos imputados aumentó de 36% a 40%, un incremento mucho menor al observado. Los resultados sugieren la conveniencia de que las instituciones tomen en cuenta los ingresos no reportados, y que reporten estadísticas tanto con como sin corrección por esos ingresos. Clasificación JEL: C10; D63; I30; I32; O54.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez, 2013. "Efectos de los ingresos no reportados en el nivel y tendencia de la pobreza laboral en México," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 32(2), pages 23-54, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:32:y:2013:i:2:id:58
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos32.2-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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