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Risk implications from the selection of rainfall index insurance intervals

Author

Listed:
  • Ashlee Westerhold
  • Cory Walters
  • Kathleen Brooks
  • Monte Vandeveer
  • Jerry Volesky
  • Walter Schacht

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the financial outcomes from forage production and RI-PRF insurance interval for two locations in Nebraska. Both locations provide historical forage production and precipitation data, allowing the authors to examine the relation between RI-PRF net income and forage production. Design/methodology/approach - The authors focus on evaluating the producer net income and risk (measured as variance of net income) by examining the relation between farm precipitation and production and comparing multiple insurance intervals to no insurance. Each insurance interval will likely have a different relation (basis risk) between observed production and return from insurance and, therefore, a different impact on the variance of net incomes. The impact on variance of net incomes identifies the risk-reducing aspects of RI-PRF insurance intervals. The authors then rank each scenario into four mutually exclusive zones that describe the risk-reducing effectiveness and whether the subsidy is working correctly. Findings - The authors found both risk increasing and decreasing insurance intervals exist at both locations. One insurance scenario (low in BBR) provided the highest net income while increasing risk, suggesting a profit maximizing opportunity. RI-PRF reduces net income risk with intervals insuring during high expected precipitation (growing season); while net income risk increases with intervals insuring low expected precipitation (non-growing season, winter months). The farmer would want to insure during the high expected precipitation months, which coincides with the growing season, since RI-PRF lowers the net income risk. For the government, removing net income risk increasing intervals improves the allocation of government resources. Originality/value - In this paper, the authors modeled the relation between RI-PRF interval selection using the historical forage production data at two locations in Nebraska. The use of historical forage production data allowed the authors to precisely identify the risk-reducing effectiveness of RI-PRF interval selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashlee Westerhold & Cory Walters & Kathleen Brooks & Monte Vandeveer & Jerry Volesky & Walter Schacht, 2018. "Risk implications from the selection of rainfall index insurance intervals," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 78(5), pages 514-531, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:afr-10-2017-0097
    DOI: 10.1108/AFR-10-2017-0097
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maples, Joshua G. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Biermacher, Jon T., 2016. "The Rainfall Index Annual Forage Pilot Program As A Risk Management Tool For Cool-Season Forage," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 29-51, February.
    2. Mario J. Miranda & Katie Farrin, 2012. "Index Insurance for Developing Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 391-427.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Whoi & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2021. "Design of the Rainfall Index Crop Insurance Program for Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(1), January.
    2. Vroege, Willemijn & Dalhaus, Tobias & Finger, Robert, 2019. "Index insurances for grasslands – A review for Europe and North-America," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 101-111.
    3. Brittney Goodrich & Jisang Yu & Monte Vandeveer, 2020. "Participation patterns of the rainfall index insurance for pasture, rangeland and forage programme," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 45(1), pages 29-51, January.
    4. Eltazarov, Sarvarbek & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Kuhn, Lena & Glauben, Thomas, 2021. "Mapping weather risk – A multi-indicator analysis of satellite-based weather data for agricultural index insurance development in semi-arid and arid zones of Central Asia," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23.
    5. Eric Le Fur & J. François Outreville, 2021. "Real Options and Reduction of Basic Risk of Index‐Based Climate Agricultural Insurance," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1658-1671, December.

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