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Hrvatska Kao Clanica Europske Unije: Put U (Ne)Poznatu Buducnost

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Bebek

    (Board Guardian, d.o.o., Zagreb.)

  • Guste Santini

    (Rifin, Zagreb.)

Abstract

Dok pojedine clanice EU žale što su ikada ušle, a neke cak razmišljaju o povlacenju, Hrvatska je svoj ulazak u EU 1. srpnja jedva docekala, smatrajuci clanstvo kartom za bolji život. Nažalost, takva nerealna ocekivanja samo ukazuju na nastavljanje našeg politickog i gospodarskog glavinjanja, jer ne samo što smo u EU ušli pognute glave nego se i sam trenutak ulaska, s obzirom na naše gospodarske poteškoce, ali i krizu u EU, može ocijeniti izrazito nepovoljnim. EU je daleko od idilicnog "jedinstva u razlicitosti" i kao hladni i bešcutni mehanizam neoliberalnog kapitalizma nikada ni za jednu novu clanicu nije znacila garanciju ekonomske sigurnosti i napretka, pa tako ni gotova rješenja za gospodarske probleme. S obzirom na to, ali i na cinjenicu da i sama EU još uvijek traga za adekvatnim modelom tranzicije, autori smatraju da je Hrvatska svoj put ka EU-u morala definirati u skladu sa svojim specificnostima, naslijedem i potrebama gradana. Buduci da to nije ucinila, sada je samo pitanje kojem ce "vanjskom" krugu Unije pripasti. EU prolazi vlastitu agoniju i s obzirom na dosadašnje ucinke krize, gospodarski uvjeti znatno su lošiji nego što su bili u vrijeme posljednjeg vala proširenja, kada su nove clanice u relativno kratkom razdoblju ostvarile dinamican gospodarski rast. No, u konacnici, dobile su mnogo manje u odnosu na svoja ocekivanja. Tipican je primjer Slovenija koja je u EU ušla kao najbogatija zemlja u regiji, a sada je jedna od najsiromašnijih clanica, uz bok Rumunjskoj i Bugarskoj. I druge su clanice sve više skepticne prema Uniji, pa se s pravom postavlja pitanje što zapravo ceka Hrvatsku. S obzirom na višestruka razvojna ogranicenja, kao i na visoke stvarne (i skrivene) troškove clanstva te troškove prestrukturiranja povezane s reformama i tek potencijalnu dostupnost financijskih sredstava Unije, hrvatsko gospodarstvo najvjerojatnije nece moci ni srednjorocno ostvariti potencijalne sinergijske ucinke clanstva. Neto financijska pozicija Hrvatske u prvim godinama clanstva prije ce biti negativna. Hoce li ti troškovi dugorocno prerasti u koristi ovisit ce o uspješnosti prestrukturiranja, osobito o spremnosti i sposobnosti hrvatske države da preokrene negativne trendove, ponajprije u smislu povecanja zaposlenosti i konkurentnosti te boljeg životnog standarda. Odgovori na ove izazove mogu biti snažan poticaj u iznalaženju optimalnog puta izlaska iz krize te prihvatljivo polazište u definiranju koncepcije i strategije razvoja Hrvatske. Samo na taj nacin clanstvo Hrvatske može imati pozitivne implikacije za stabilnost regije. Naravno, koliko je to izvedivo u uvjetima prihvacenog institucionalnog okvira s brojnim ogranicenjima u pogledu samostalnog razvoja, otvoreno je pitanje. No jedno je sigurno, odustajanjem od tih pokušaja naša egzistencija može lako postati još siromašnijom, prikljucujuci se društvima koja egzistiraju na psihologiji pomoci i najamnoj ekonomiji

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Bebek & Guste Santini, 2013. "Hrvatska Kao Clanica Europske Unije: Put U (Ne)Poznatu Buducnost," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 20(1), pages 1-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:1-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : clanstvo u EU-u; gospodarski oporavak; konkuretnost; zaposlenost; inozemna zaduženost; tecajna politika.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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