IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v45y2009i3p472-485.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Longer-term forecasting and risks in spatial optimization models: The world grain trade

Author

Listed:
  • DeVuyst, Eric
  • Wilson, William W.
  • Dahl, Bruce

Abstract

This study develops a methodology to quantify risks associated with projected commodity flows in a spatial optimization model. In this paper it is applied to the world grain trade which is characteristic of numerous commodities and with complicated and competing logistical channels in world trade. The model provides a longer-run solution by simultaneously allowing for changes in production patterns, trade flows, and intermodal, interport and inter-reach allocation of shipments. Results show that important factors affecting shipments include: changes in demand across countries, delay costs, and the increased domestic use of grains. Findings of interest show delay costs on barges shift movements to rail, other origins and ports. Second, there is much greater uncertainty for projections for more distant periods forward. Finally, the model can be applied similarly to other commodities and/or be used to analyze spatial flows concentrated in other geographic regions.

Suggested Citation

  • DeVuyst, Eric & Wilson, William W. & Dahl, Bruce, 2009. "Longer-term forecasting and risks in spatial optimization models: The world grain trade," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 472-485, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:45:y:2009:i:3:p:472-485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554508001300
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Lei & Wilson, William W. & Dahl, Bruce, 2015. "Risk analysis in port competition for containerized imports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 743-753.
    2. Fan, Lei & Wilson, William W. & Dahl, Bruce, 2012. "Congestion, port expansion and spatial competition for US container imports," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1121-1136.
    3. Chi, Junwook & Baek, Jungho, 2011. "Demand Analysis for Coal on the United States Inland Waterway System: Fully‐Modified Cointegration (FM‐OLS) Approach," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 50(1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:45:y:2009:i:3:p:472-485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.