IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v94y2015icp335-349.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seizing the X-events. The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it

Author

Listed:
  • Wilenius, Markku
  • Casti, John

Abstract

The article addresses the long-term patterns of societal change. In particular, it considers how certain high-impact, surprising events (“X-events”) can change existing trends and thus give rise to a future that does not follow the “business-as-usual” default trend-following scenario. We look at the case of Kondratieff waves (“K-waves”), those socio-economic cycles by which dynamical societal patterns are often detected in futures studies. We postulate four hypothetical X-events and how they might fundamentally change the existing trend and thus take us to a very different kind of future. Finally, we recommend a set of principles through which organisations and countries can follow to deal with X-events should they occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilenius, Markku & Casti, John, 2015. "Seizing the X-events. The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 335-349.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:94:y:2015:i:c:p:335-349
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514003783
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gkoumas, Konstantinos & van Balen, Mitchell & Tsakalidis, Anastasios & Pekar, Ferenc, 2022. "Evaluating the development of transport technologies in European research and innovation projects between 2007 and 2020," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Coccia, Mario, 2018. "A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 287-295.
    3. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Technology and Business Cycles: A Schumpeterian Investigation for the USA," MPRA Paper 80636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Anastasios Tsakalidis & Mitchell van Balen & Konstantinos Gkoumas & Ferenc Pekar, 2020. "Catalyzing Sustainable Transport Innovation through Policy Support and Monitoring: The Case of TRIMIS and the European Green Deal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Ralph Hippe & Damien Demailly & Claude Diebolt, 2022. "The Digital Transition for a Sustainable Mobility Regime? A Long-Run Perspective," Working Papers of BETA 2022-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Does technology cause business cycles in the USA? A Schumpeter-inspired approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 15-26, December.
    7. Bilgen, Hakki, 2021. "A global comparison methodology to determine critical requirements for achieving industry 4.0," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:94:y:2015:i:c:p:335-349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.