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Seizing the X-events. The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it

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  • Wilenius, Markku
  • Casti, John

Abstract

The article addresses the long-term patterns of societal change. In particular, it considers how certain high-impact, surprising events (“X-events”) can change existing trends and thus give rise to a future that does not follow the “business-as-usual” default trend-following scenario. We look at the case of Kondratieff waves (“K-waves”), those socio-economic cycles by which dynamical societal patterns are often detected in futures studies. We postulate four hypothetical X-events and how they might fundamentally change the existing trend and thus take us to a very different kind of future. Finally, we recommend a set of principles through which organisations and countries can follow to deal with X-events should they occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilenius, Markku & Casti, John, 2015. "Seizing the X-events. The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 335-349.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:94:y:2015:i:c:p:335-349
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Gkoumas, Konstantinos & van Balen, Mitchell & Tsakalidis, Anastasios & Pekar, Ferenc, 2022. "Evaluating the development of transport technologies in European research and innovation projects between 2007 and 2020," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Undheim, Trond Arne, 2024. "In search of better methods for the longitudinal assessment of tech-derived X-risks: How five leading scenario planning efforts can help," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Coccia, Mario, 2018. "A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 287-295.
    4. Ralph Hippe & Damien Demailly & Claude Diebolt, 2022. "The Digital Transition for a Sustainable Mobility Regime? A Long-Run Perspective," Working Papers of BETA 2022-19, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Does technology cause business cycles in the USA? A Schumpeter-inspired approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 15-26, December.
    6. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Technology and Business Cycles: A Schumpeterian Investigation for the USA," MPRA Paper 80636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Anastasios Tsakalidis & Mitchell van Balen & Konstantinos Gkoumas & Ferenc Pekar, 2020. "Catalyzing Sustainable Transport Innovation through Policy Support and Monitoring: The Case of TRIMIS and the European Green Deal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Bilgen, Hakki, 2021. "A global comparison methodology to determine critical requirements for achieving industry 4.0," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

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