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Modeling the effects of artificial intelligence (AI)-based innovation on sustainable development goals (SDGs): Applying a system dynamics perspective in a cross-country setting

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  • Nahar, Sharmin

Abstract

Global environmental outcomes, productivity, inclusion, and equality aspects are already beginning to be impacted by artificial intelligence (AI), both immediately and over time. AI is expected to have both beneficial and detrimental effects on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Nevertheless, there is a lacuna in the literature regarding systematically forecasting `AI's impact on different facets of SDGs over time in various countries. Moreover, though existing literature has reported a correlation between AI and innovation, no prior studies have forecast the influence of AI-based innovation on SDG Outcomes. To fill these significant research gaps, this study forecasts the impact of AI-based innovation on achieving SDGs over nine years, extending from 2022 to 2030 in 22 countries (including both developed and developing countries) across five continents via system dynamics modeling-based simulation and grounded in Institutional Theory (Technology Enactment Framework). The findings exhibit varying impacts on different SDGs. This study enriches the AI, innovation, and sustainable development literature by providing forecasts of the intricate relationship between AI, innovation, and SDGs, thereby offering valuable insights to the reader.

Suggested Citation

  • Nahar, Sharmin, 2024. "Modeling the effects of artificial intelligence (AI)-based innovation on sustainable development goals (SDGs): Applying a system dynamics perspective in a cross-country setting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:201:y:2024:i:c:s0040162523008880
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123203
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    1. Costa, Alessandra & Crupi, Antonio & Cesaroni, Fabrizio & Abbate, Tindara, 2025. "Exploring the role of artificial intelligence in addressing sustainable development. A semantic analysis of AI patents," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Fu, Tong & Qiu, Zhaoxuan & Yang, Xiangyang & Li, Zijun, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence on green technology cycles in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Tamara Schnell & Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele, 2025. "The social embeddedness of trust in AI: How existing trust relations to decision-makers and institutions influence trust in AI decision aids for public administration," GEIST - Geography of Innovation and Sustainability Transitions 2025(02), GEIST Working Paper Series.
    4. Chenyi Wan & Zongfa Wu, 2025. "How the Digital Intelligence Economy Can Promote Regional High-Quality Development Under the Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Nadeem, Waqar & Ashraf, Abdul R. & Khan, Huda & Kumar, V., 2026. "Impact of AI strategies on climate-change performance: Responsible AI and crisis management perspectives," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Ying-Hui Shao & Yan-Hong Yang & Han-Xian Zhou & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2025. "Dynamic spillovers and investment strategies across artificial intelligence ETFs, artificial intelligence tokens, and green markets," Papers 2503.01148, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    7. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Nie, Pu-yan & Charkh, Cyrus, 2024. "Cycles-specific benefits of smart transport for sustainable investing: Global and regional perspectives with different ethical paradigms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    8. Qinwen Deng & Yue Long & Xiaoqiong Ni & Yilin Jiang, 2025. "How does technological innovation affect urban economic resilience? Evidence from 276 Chinese cities," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Shanwen Gu & Adil Javed, 2025. "Artificial Intelligence Adoption and Role of Energy Structure, Infrastructure, Financial Inclusions, and Carbon Emissions: Quantile Analysis of E-7 Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-25, June.
    10. Shiheng Xie & Jiaqi Ji & Yiran Zhang & Shuping Wang, 2025. "How Does Industrial Intelligence Enhance Green Total Factor Productivity in China? The Substitution Effect of Environmental Regulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-31, September.
    11. Alshibani, Safiya Mukhtar & Korayim, Diana & Mehrotra, Ankit & Agarwal, Vaishali, 2025. "Fostering responsible AI adoption in startups through entrepreneurial orientation: A sustainable approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Hussein, Jelili Babatunde & Workneh, Tilahun Seyoum & Kassim, Alaika & Ntsowe, Khuthadzo & Melesse, Sileshi F. & El-Mesery, Hany S. & Zicheng, Hu, 2025. "A review of the use of artificial intelligence in renewable energy for food processing and preservation process optimisation, challenges, and future prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    13. Lohmer, Jacob & Birkel, Hendrik & Müller, Julian M., 2024. "The internet of value: Towards a definition, framework, and understanding of its sustainability implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    14. Chen, Yuhang & Zhong, Yilin & Xu, Feng & Zhang, Qinghua, 2025. "Driving environmental, social, and governance excellence: The direct and indirect effects of intelligent transformation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 313-331.
    15. Liu, Xiaoqian & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Yang, Xiaodong & Pan, Junyu, 2025. "The green innovation effect of industrial robot applications: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing companies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    16. Leite, Higor, 2025. "Artificial intelligence in higher education: Research notes from a longitudinal study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    17. Di Chiacchio, Laura & Al-Khateeb, Haider & Butt, Usman & Yussof, Salman, 2026. "AI legitimacy in energy: A model to improve corporate narratives on sustainability and responsibility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    18. Alejandro Cataldo & Natalia Bravo-Adasme & Juan Riquelme & Ariela Vásquez & Sebastián Rojas & Mario Arias-Oliva, 2025. "Multidimensional Poverty as a Determinant of Techno-Distress in Online Education: Evidence from the Post-Pandemic Era," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 22(7), pages 1-25, June.
    19. Bergougui, Brahim, 2025. "Institutional adaptability, skill-bias technological shifts, and energy efficiency in global decarbonization pathways: Exploring the role of artificial intelligence patents," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Huang, Yujie & Liu, Shucheng & Gan, Jiawu & Liu, Baoliu & Wu, Yuxi, 2024. "How does the construction of new generation of national AI innovative development pilot zones drive enterprise ESG development? Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    21. Zu, Xu & Ni, Guangxian & Hu, Ruifeng, 2025. "AI technology innovation, knowledge management and corporate environmental sustainability: Evidence from Chinese patent data," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    22. Kang, Shikang & Shang, Yu, 2025. "How artificial intelligence drives industrial digitalization and greening synergies? Evidence from China's AI innovation and development pilot zones," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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