IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v167y2021ics0040162521001116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel analysis of COVID 19 risk in India incorporating climatic and socioeconomic Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Jha, Srinidhi
  • Goyal, Manish Kumar
  • Gupta, Brij
  • Gupta, Anil Kumar

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of climate variables (pressure, relative humidity, temperature and wind speed) in inducing risk due to COVID 19 at rural, urban and total (rural and urban) population scale in 623 pandemic affected districts of India incorporating the socioeconomic vulnerability factors. We employed nonstationary extreme value analysis to model the different quantiles of cumulative COVID 19 cases in the districts by using climatic factors as covariates. Wind speed was the most dominating climatic factor followed by relative humidity, pressure, and temperature in the evolution of the cases. The results reveal that stationarity, i.e., the COVID 19 cases which are independent of pressure, relative humidity, temperature and wind speed, existed only in 148 (23.7%) out of 623 districts. Whereas, strong nonstationarity, i.e., climate dependence, was detected in the cases of 474 (76.08%) districts. 334 (53.6%), 200 (32.1%) and 336 (53.9%) districts out of 623 districts were at high risk (or above) at rural, urban and total population scales respectively. 19 out of 35 states were observed to be under high (or above) Kerala, Maharashtra, Goa and Delhi being the most risked ones. The study provides high-risk maps of COVID 19 pandemic at the district level and is aimed at supporting the decision-makers to identify climatic and socioeconomic factors in augmenting the risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jha, Srinidhi & Goyal, Manish Kumar & Gupta, Brij & Gupta, Anil Kumar, 2021. "A novel analysis of COVID 19 risk in India incorporating climatic and socioeconomic Factors," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:167:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001116
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120679
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521001116
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120679?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. B. Bonaccorso & I. Bordi & A. Cancelliere & G. Rossi & A. Sutera, 2003. "Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(4), pages 273-296, August.
    2. Kumar, Nikhil & Poonia, Vikas & Gupta, B.B. & Goyal, Manish Kumar, 2021. "A novel framework for risk assessment and resilience of critical infrastructure towards climate change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. O. Dorgham & Banan Al-Rahamneh & Ammar Almomani & Moh'd Al-Hadidi & Khalaf F. Khatatneh, 2018. "Enhancing the Security of Exchanging and Storing DICOM Medical Images on the Cloud," International Journal of Cloud Applications and Computing (IJCAC), IGI Global, vol. 8(1), pages 154-172, January.
    4. Rajendra Kumar Dwivedi & Rakesh Kumar & Rajkumar Buyya, 2021. "Gaussian Distribution-Based Machine Learning Scheme for Anomaly Detection in Healthcare Sensor Cloud," International Journal of Cloud Applications and Computing (IJCAC), IGI Global, vol. 11(1), pages 52-72, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    2. Lina Eklund & Jonathan Seaquist, 2015. "Meteorological, agricultural and socioeconomic drought in the Duhok Governorate, Iraqi Kurdistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 421-441, March.
    3. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    4. Qayyum, Abdul & Razzak, Imran & Malik, Aamir Saeed & Anwar, Sajid, 2021. "Fusion of CNN and sparse representation for threat estimation near power lines and poles infrastructure using aerial stereo imagery," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2011. "An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1075-1086, March.
    6. I. García-Garizábal & J. Causapé & R. Abrahao & D. Merchan, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigation Demand: Historical Dynamics of Climate and Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1449-1462, March.
    7. Yuan-Chien Lin & En-Dian Kuo & Wan-Ju Chi, 2021. "Analysis of Meteorological Drought Resilience and Risk Assessment of Groundwater Using Signal Analysis Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 179-197, January.
    8. Seol A. Kwon, 2022. "Where Does an Individual’s Willingness to Act on Alleviating the Climate Crisis in Korea Arise from?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Sergio Vicente-Serrano, 2007. "Evaluating the Impact of Drought Using Remote Sensing in a Mediterranean, Semi-arid Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(1), pages 173-208, January.
    10. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Shuhua Dong & Umar Waqas Liaqat & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Yuxiang Hu & Qaisar Saddique, 2016. "Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4839-4859, October.
    11. Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1277-1296, September.
    12. A. Capra & S. Consoli & B. Scicolone, 2013. "Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 601-617, January.
    13. Mohamed Meddi & Ali Assani & Hind Meddi, 2010. "Temporal Variability of Annual Rainfall in the Macta and Tafna Catchments, Northwestern Algeria," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3817-3833, November.
    14. Tayeb Raziei & Bahram Saghafian & Ana Paulo & Luis Pereira & Isabella Bordi, 2009. "Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 439-455, February.
    15. Yu, Hongxin & Zhao, Yuanjun & Liu, Zheng & Liu, Wei & Zhang, Shuai & Wang, Fatao & Shi, Lihua, 2021. "Research on the financing income of supply chains based on an E-commerce platform," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    16. Roman Rolbiecki & Ali Yücel & Joanna Kocięcka & Atılgan Atilgan & Monika Marković & Daniel Liberacki, 2022. "Analysis of SPI as a Drought Indicator during the Maize Growing Period in the Çukurova Region (Turkey)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-29, March.
    17. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    18. Pornpit Wongthongtham & Bilal Abu-Salih & Jeff Huang & Hemixa Patel & Komsun Siripun, 2023. "A Multi-Criteria Analysis Approach to Identify Flood Risk Asset Damage Hotspots in Western Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-30, March.
    19. Hinge, Gilbert & Surampalli, Rao Y. & Goyal, Manish Kumar & Gupta, Brij B. & Chang, Xiaojun, 2021. "Soil carbon and its associate resilience using big data analytics: For food Security and environmental management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    20. A. Cancelliere & G. Mauro & B. Bonaccorso & G. Rossi, 2007. "Drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 801-819, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:167:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.