Temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions from cultivated land use and their influencing factors: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta region

This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta region and employs spatial analysis and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions from cultivated land use and their influencing factors. The findings indicate that carbon emissions from cultivated land use in the Yangtze River Delta generally show a decreasing trend, but there has been a significant increase in Anhui Province, mainly due to government efforts to promote agricultural development. Additionally, the spatial distributions of carbon emissions from cultivated land use clearly differ in terms of proximity, with changing temporal and spatial patterns. (1) From 2005 to 2020, there were significant spatial differences in the carbon emission intensity from cultivated land use across the Yangtze River Delta. The emission intensities in the southern areas were generally higher than those in the northeastern and central regions, whereas the western areas presented lower emission intensities. (2) The carbon emission intensity from cultivated land use in the Yangtze River Delta exhibited significant spatial proximity, meaning that neighboring areas had similar emission intensities, presenting a continuous distribution pattern. Contiguous distributions were also observed in parts of northern Anhui, central Jiangsu, and southeastern Zhejiang. (3) The carbon emission intensity from cultivated land use in the Yangtze River Delta showed a trend of high-intensity reductions and low-intensity increases over time and space. The level of agricultural development, scale of farmland management, types of crops planted, income levels of rural residents, intensity of agricultural machinery input, and strength of agricultural financial support significantly impact carbon emissions from cultivated land use. The results provide important references and a theoretical basis for the management and regulation of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region.