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Bayesian approaches for detecting significant deterioration

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  • Røed, Willy
  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

Risk indicators can provide useful input to risk management processes and are given increased attention in the Norwegian petroleum industry. Examples include indicators expressing the proportion of test failures of safety and barrier systems. Such indicators give valuable information about the performance of the systems and provide a basis for trend evaluations. Early warning of a possible deterioration is essential due to the importance of the systems in focus, but what should be the basis for the warning criterion? This paper presents and discusses several Bayesian approaches for the establishment of a warning criterion to disclose significant deterioration. The Norwegian petroleum industry is the starting point for this paper, but the study is relevant for other application areas as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Røed, Willy & Aven, Terje, 2009. "Bayesian approaches for detecting significant deterioration," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 604-610.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:2:p:604-610
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2008.06.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kvaløy, J.T. & Aven, T., 2005. "An alternative approach to trend analysis in accident data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-82.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marhavilas, P.K. & Koulouriotis, D.E., 2012. "A combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods in the worksites: Application on an electric power provider," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 36-46.

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