IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v317y2003i3p597-608.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic resonance as a model for financial market crashes and bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Krawiecki, A.
  • Hołyst, J.A.

Abstract

A bistable model of a financial market is considered, aimed at modelling financial crashes and bubbles, based on the Ising model with thermal-bath dynamics and long-range interactions, subject to a weak external information-carrying signal and noise. In the ordered phase, opposite stable orientations of magnetization correspond to the growing and declining market before and after the crash or bubble, and jumps of magnetization direction correspond to crashes and bubbles. It is shown that the influence of an information-carrying signal, assumed to be too weak to induce magnetization jumps, can be enhanced by the external noise via the effect of stochastic resonance. It is argued that in real stock markets the arrival of a piece of information, considered a posteriori to be the cause for a crash or bubble, can be enhanced in a similar way, thus leading to price return whose value is unexpectedly large in comparison with relatively weak importance of this piece of information.

Suggested Citation

  • Krawiecki, A. & Hołyst, J.A., 2003. "Stochastic resonance as a model for financial market crashes and bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 317(3), pages 597-608.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:317:y:2003:i:3:p:597-608
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01375-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437102013754
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Werneck, Filipe K., 2009. "Can we predict crashes? The case of the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1603-1609.
    2. Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir & Seaman, Tim, 2005. "A threshold model of investor psychology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 463-478.
    3. Kyrylo Shmatov & Mikhail Smirnov, 2005. "On Some Processes and Distributions in a Collective Model of Investors' Behavior," Papers nlin/0506015, arXiv.org.
    4. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin, 2014. "Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 247-253.
    5. Sato, Aki-Hiro, 2007. "Frequency analysis of tick quotes on the foreign exchange market and agent-based modeling: A spectral distance approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 258-270.
    6. Chen, Zhiping & Duan, Qihong, 2011. "New models of trader beliefs and their application for explaining financial bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2215-2227, September.
    7. Aki-Hiro Sato, 2005. "A characteristic time scale of tick quotes on foreign currency markets," Papers physics/0509142, arXiv.org.
    8. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for rational bubbles in banking indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 365-376.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:317:y:2003:i:3:p:597-608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.