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The only constant is change: Evidence on the declining role of fossil fuels and the rise of strategic metals in energy transition

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  • Tarkun, Savaş

Abstract

This study explores the shifting informational dynamics between fossil fuels and strategic metals in the context of global energy transition. Using a dual-frequency framework—frequency-domain Granger causality and time-frequency connectedness—we analyze daily data from 2018 to 2025, covering Brent crude oil, coal, and key strategic metals such as copper, lithium, and nickel. Our findings reveal a structural transformation: fossil fuels have become increasingly reactive, while strategic metals act as forward-looking market leaders. These metals not only represent essential inputs for green technologies but also function as systemic financial signals across time horizons. The results highlight a reconfiguration of energy-related influence networks, underscoring the growing role of resource-critical markets in shaping expectations, volatility, and long-term planning. This study contributes to a more integrated understanding of how material flows and financial signals intersect in the green transition, offering novel insights for energy policy, market design, and sustainable investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarkun, Savaş, 2025. "The only constant is change: Evidence on the declining role of fossil fuels and the rise of strategic metals in energy transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:107:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725002077
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105665
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic metals; Fossil fuels; Green transformation; Frequency connectedness; Information spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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