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Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths

Author

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  • Kobilov, Botir
  • Rouen, Ethan
  • Serafeim, George

Abstract

We examine whether a country's management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the probability of underreporting of COVID-related deaths for countries with the most stringent policies was 58.6%, compared to a 28.2% for countries with the least stringent policies. Countries with the lowest ex ante healthcare capacity in terms of number of available beds underreport deaths by 52.5% on average, compared to 23.1% for countries with the greatest capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kobilov, Botir & Rouen, Ethan & Serafeim, George, 2021. "Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths," Journal of Government and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jogoec:v:2:y:2021:i:c:s2667319321000124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2021.100012
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    Cited by:

    1. Naeher,Dominik & Narayanan,Raghavan & Ziulu,Virginia, 2022. "Relevance of the World Bank Group’s Early Response to COVID-19 : A Cross-Country Sector Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9935, The World Bank.

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