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Expectation errors in the foreign exchange market

Author

Listed:
  • Ferreira, Alex
  • Moore, Michael
  • Mukherjee, Satrajit

Abstract

A unified theoretical model is developed showing that forecasting errors can be explained by both informational rigidities and portfolio shifts. This is applied to the BRL/USD exchange rate forecasting errors using a unique data set of daily consensus forecasts along with order flow derived from the FX futures market. The results strongly support the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Alex & Moore, Michael & Mukherjee, Satrajit, 2019. "Expectation errors in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 44-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:95:y:2019:i:c:p:44-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.03.005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ojeda-Joya, Jair & Romero, José Vicente, 2023. "Global uncertainty shocks and exchange-rate expectations in Latin America," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Anokye M. Adam & Kwabena Kyei & Simiso Moyo & Ryan Gill & Emmanuel N. Gyamfi, 2022. "Multifrequency network for SADC exchange rate markets using EEMD-based DCCA," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 145-166, January.
    3. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Do terrorist attacks matter for currency excess returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Jean-Louis Arcand & Max-Olivier Hongler & Shekhar Hari Kumar & Daniele Rinaldo, 2020. "Can one hear the shape of a target zone?," Papers 2002.00948, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    5. Arcand, Jean-Louis & Kumar, Shekhar Hari & Hongler, Max-Olivier & Rinaldo, Daniele, 2023. "Can one hear the shape of a target zone?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectation errors; Noisy information; Microstructure; Order flow; Exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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