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Methodology for predicting European short-haul air transport demand from regional airports

Author

Listed:
  • Brooke, A.S.
  • Caves, R.E.
  • Pitfield, D.E.

Abstract

This work uses data from Civil Aviation Authority surveys to develop a methodology to model air trip generation within the Midlands region and air trip distribution between available airports. The technique applied in the modelling of air trip generation is that of propensity to fly, whereby the trip-making population are categorized both spatially and according to standard industrial classification for business trips and socioeconomic group for leisure trips. By estimation of growth rates in propensities to fly a new distribution of trip origins can be produced for the forecasting year. Distribution of these trips between East Midlands, Birmingham, Heathrow, Manchester and Leeds/Bradford airports is made using a model of the multinomial logit form. The explanatory variables contained within the model are access time, a frequency utility function which gives a diminishing marginal utility with respect to flight frequency, cost and an aircraft technology dummy variable, distinguishing services operated by jet and those operated by turboprop aircraft. Of these variables, flight frequency contributes most to overall utility. The approach allows forecasts to be made of market share under a variety of supply scenarios, greatly assisting in the decision-making of management and policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Brooke, A.S. & Caves, R.E. & Pitfield, D.E., 1994. "Methodology for predicting European short-haul air transport demand from regional airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 37-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:1:y:1994:i:1:p:37-46
    DOI: 10.1016/0969-6997(94)90029-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Pels & Peter Nijkamp & Piet Rietveld, 2001. "Airport and Airline Choice in a Multiple Airport Region: An Empirical Analysis for the San Francisco Bay Area," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-9.
    2. Loo, Becky P.Y., 2008. "Passengers’ airport choice within multi-airport regions (MARs): some insights from a stated preference survey at Hong Kong International Airport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 117-125.
    3. Presto, Felix & Gollnick, Volker & Lau, Alexander & Lütjens, Klaus, 2022. "Flight frequency regulation and its temporal implications," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 106-118.
    4. Guido Perboli & Marco Ghirardi & Luca Gobbato & Francesca Perfetti, 2015. "Flights and Their Economic Impact on the Airport Catchment Area: An Application to the Italian Tourist Market," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1109-1133, March.
    5. Pels, Eric & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2000. "Airport and Airline Competition for Passengers Departing from a Large Metropolitan Area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 29-45, July.
    6. Stephane Hess, 2004. "An analysis of airport-choice behaviour using the Mixed Multinomial Logit model," ERSA conference papers ersa04p61, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Stephane Hess, 2005. "Analysing air-travel choice behaviour in the Greater London area," ERSA conference papers ersa05p736, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Eric Pels & Peter Nijkamp & Piet Rietveld, 1998. "Equilibrium Airfares, Frequencies and Airport Taxes in a Multiple Airport Region: An Application of the Nested Logit Demand Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-073/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Christiaan Behrens & Eric Pels, 2009. "Intermodal Competition in The London-Paris Passenger Market: High-Speed Rail and Air Transport," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-051/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Lucia Rotaris & Romeo Danielis & Igor Sarman & Edoardo Marcucci, 2012. "Testing for nonlinearity in the choice of a freight transport service," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 50, pages 1-4.
    11. Dennis, Nigel P.S, 2002. "Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 313-324.
    12. Lieshout, Rogier, 2012. "Measuring the size of an airport’s catchment area," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 27-34.
    13. de Neufville, Richard, 1995. "Management of multi-airport systems," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-110.

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