Estimation of loss reserves with lognormal development factors
This paper uses a development technique to estimate the loss reserve in a classical run-off triangle setting. Closed-form solutions for unbiased estimates of reserves and their corresponding standard errors can be obtained by assuming lognormal distributions of the development factors. The technique is applied to the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method [Bornhuetter, R.L., Ferguson, R.E., 1972. The actuary and IBNR. Proc. Casualty Actuarial Soc. 59, 181-195] and to two previously studied data sets.
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- Verrall, R. J., 1991. "On the estimation of reserves from loglinear models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 75-80, March.
- Taylor, G. C. & Ashe, F. R., 1983. "Second moments of estimates of outstanding claims," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 37-61, September.
- England, Peter & Verrall, Richard, 1999. "Analytic and bootstrap estimates of prediction errors in claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 281-293, December.
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