IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v126y2026ics0167668725001441.html

Prolonging life by vitagions: Modelling of mortality improvement shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Carannante, Maria
  • D’Amato, Valeria
  • Di Palo, Cinzia

Abstract

Changes in life expectancy are commonly used to track shifts in mortality dynamics, yet they are hard to interpret, especially during so-called mortality shocks that arrive suddenly, are temporary, and run counter to the long-run trend. Purely extrapolative models cannot capture such changes. Therefore, we propose a forward-looking extension of the Lee-Carter framework, which integrates mortality improvements due to ‘vitagions’. Vitagions are individual sources of mortality improvement, and projects how these might unfold in the future. To model mortality increases related to medical innovation, we consider extending the Lee-Carter model to capture heterogeneity in morality (i.e. fraity-based model) and include a jump diffusion process estimated as a function of the relationship between medical progress and mortality trends to improve mortality projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Carannante, Maria & D’Amato, Valeria & Di Palo, Cinzia, 2026. "Prolonging life by vitagions: Modelling of mortality improvement shocks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:126:y:2026:i:c:s0167668725001441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668725001441
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103198?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:126:y:2026:i:c:s0167668725001441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.