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Has India’s learning crisis really worsened?

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  • Joshi, Sarthak

Abstract

Despite continuing improvements in educational inputs, the main source of learning metrics in India – the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) surveys – show a large and permanent decline in basic math and reading ability among children aged 5–16 between 2007 and 2018. I argue that this decline is partly an artifact of changing measurement error. Using an external benchmark, I show that pre-2011 learning estimates are biased upwards, potentially due to undersampling of poorer households. This positive bias dissipated over time, appearing to coincide with the introduction of improved data quality assurance procedures in the 2011 survey round. While the true decline was likely smaller than previously thought, concerns about the declining productivity of India's education system remain.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshi, Sarthak, 2026. "Has India’s learning crisis really worsened?," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:injoed:v:122:y:2026:i:c:s0738059326000210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijedudev.2026.103511
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    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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