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Asset markets, tariffs, and political risk

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  • Stockman, Alan C.
  • Dellas, Harris

Abstract

The paper examines a simple model in which exogenous political risk creates uncertainty about tariffs. The model predicts a relation between consumption and tariffs that differs radically from that implied by models without asset markets or political risk. Given the probability distribution of tariffs, domestic consumption and utility (ex post) are lower in states of the world with a domestic tariff and no foreign tariff than with a foreign tariff and no domestic tariff.This conclusion emerges despite the fact that the opposite would be obtained in the absence of asset markets. So economists should not be surprised if observed relations between consumption and tariffs differ from the predictions of static theory in either time-series or cross-sections.
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Suggested Citation

  • Stockman, Alan C. & Dellas, Harris, 1986. "Asset markets, tariffs, and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 199-213, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:21:y:1986:i:3-4:p:199-213
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    Cited by:

    1. Francois, Joseph F. & Martin, Will, 2004. "Commercial policy variability, bindings, and market access," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 665-679, June.
    2. Blanchard, Emily J., 2015. "A Shifting Mandate: International Ownership, Global Fragmentation, and a Case for Deeper Integration under the WTO," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 87-99, January.
    3. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Tariffs and asset market structure: some basic comparative dynamics," Working Papers 1995-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Anticipated Protectionist Policies, Real Exchange Rates and the Current Account," UCLA Economics Working Papers 437, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Feeney, JoAnne & Hillman, Arye L., 2004. "Trade liberalization through asset markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 151-167, October.
    6. Merve Tuncay, 2018. "Do political risks matter in the financial markets?: evidence from Turkey," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 209-227, June.
    7. Feeney, JoAnne & Hillman, Arye L., 1995. "Asset markets and individual trade policy preferences," Discussion Papers, Series II 282, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    8. Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Fiscal Policies and International Financial Markets," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 197-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael R. Pakko, 1996. "Tariff risk and international borrowing with incomplete asset markets," Working Papers 1996-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Blanchard, Emily J., 2010. "Reevaluating the role of trade agreements: Does investment globalization make the WTO obsolete?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-72, September.
    11. Barari, Mahua, 1992. "Asset markets, stochastic policy and international trade," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000010972, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Jensen, Richard & Thursby, Marie, 1990. "Tariffs with private information and reputation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 43-67, August.
    13. Lorenzo Caliendo & Samuel Kortum & Fernando Parro, 2025. "Tariffs and Trade Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2448, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Devereux, Michael B. & Min Lee, Khang, 1999. "Endogenous trade policy and the gains from international financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 35-59, February.
    15. Blanchard, Emily J., 2014. "What global fragmentation means for the WTO: Article XXIV, behind-the-border concessions, and a new case for WTO limits on investment incentives," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2014-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    16. Stahl, Dale O. & Turunen-Red, Arja H., 1995. "Tariff games: Cooperation with random variation in political regimes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 215-238, June.
    17. Stéphane Auray & Michael B. Devereux & Aurélien Eyquem, 2024. "The Demand for Trade Protection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 865-898, June.

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