IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v169y2024ics1389934124000844.html

Forecasting forest-related political decisions in a climate-constrained world – The remuneration of forest ecosystem services in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Sprinz, Detlef F.
  • Schaefers, Tabea V.
  • Lenk, Freya
  • Krott, Max

Abstract

Political systems are under increasing pressures to respond to the impacts of climate change. We employ a numerical policy negotiation forecast model and apply it to forest-related political decisions on remunerating forest ecosystem services. Our results predict that German forest carbon sinks will be partially remunerated by government payment systems as will nature conservation efforts and climate resilient forest management. Our predictions indicate that there is substantial remaining upward pressure on each of these issues to go beyond present regulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sprinz, Detlef F. & Schaefers, Tabea V. & Lenk, Freya & Krott, Max, 2024. "Forecasting forest-related political decisions in a climate-constrained world – The remuneration of forest ecosystem services in Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:169:y:2024:i:c:s1389934124000844
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124000844
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103231?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Göhrs, Max & Krott, Max & Hubo, Christiane, 2022. "Political parties as allies for the forestry sector: A case study from Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Katharina Michaelowa & Axel Michaelowa, 2012. "Negotiating climate change," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 527-533, September.
    3. DeCanio, Stephen J. & Fremstad, Anders, 2013. "Game theory and climate diplomacy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 177-187.
    4. Winkel, Georg & Lovrić, Marko & Muys, Bart & Katila, Pia & Lundhede, Thomas & Pecurul, Mireia & Pettenella, Davide & Pipart, Nathalie & Plieninger, Tobias & Prokofieva, Irina & Parra, Constanza & Pülz, 2022. "Governing Europe's forests for multiple ecosystem services: Opportunities, challenges, and policy options," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
    6. Stevanov, Mirjana & Krott, Max, 2021. "Embedding scientific information into forestry praxis: Explaining knowledge transfer in transdisciplinary projects by using German case," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Loft, Lasse & Schleyer, Christian & Klingler, Michael & Kister, Jutta & Zoll, Felix & Stegmaier, Peter & Aukes, Ewert & Sorge, Stefan & Mann, Carsten, 2022. "The development of governance innovations for the sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services in Europe: A comparative analysis of four pilot innovation processes," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
    9. Elsasser, Peter & Meyerhoff, Jürgen & Weller, Priska, 2016. "An updated bibliography and database on forest ecosystem service valuation studies in Austria, Germany and Switzerland," Thünen Working Papers 65, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    10. Beland Lindahl, Karin & Söderberg, Charlotta & Lukina, Natalia & Tebenkova, Daria & Pecurul, Mireia & Pülzl, Helga & Sotirov, Metodi & Widmark, Camilla, 2023. "Clash or concert in European forests? Integration and coherence of forest ecosystem service–related national policies," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Krott, Max & Bader, Axel & Schusser, Carsten & Devkota, Rosan & Maryudi, Ahmad & Giessen, Lukas & Aurenhammer, Helene, 2014. "Actor-centred power: The driving force in decentralised community based forest governance," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 34-42.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas, Annika & Hubo, Christiane, 2024. "Multiple crises as a policy window for forest and nature a power-analysis from Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Ernesto Mesa-Vázquez & José A. Aznar-Sánchez & Óscar González-Yebra & Miguel A. Gómez-Tenorio, 2025. "The use of the game theory in the management of agroecosystem services," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 71(11), pages 618-627.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schaefers, Tabea V. & Krott, Max & Kirchner, Michael, 2025. "The influence of science within forest policy making - the case of payments for forest ecosystem services for climate-adapted forest management in Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    2. Droste, Nils & Brownell, Huntley & D'Amato, Dalia & Ekström, Hanna & Fridén, Alexia & Harrinkari, Teemu & Iliev, Bogomil & May, Wilhelm & Nebasifu, Ayonghe & Thomsen, Marianne, 2025. "Evaluating transformative policies in complex land-use systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2016. "Editorial to the Issue on Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 111-114.
    4. Truffer, Oliver & Lieberherr, Eva & Van Ruymbeke, Kato & Chimisso, Costanza & Rowe, Tim & Vranken, Liesbet & Ohmura, Tamaki, 2025. "Mapping the research of Forest ecosystem Services in Europe: A review," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    5. Fridén, Alexia & D'Amato, Dalia & Ekström, Hanna & Iliev, Bogomil & Nebasifu, Ayonghe & May, Wilhelm & Thomsen, Marianne & Droste, Nils, 2024. "Mapping two centuries of forest governance in Nordic countries: An open access database," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Thomas, Annika & Hubo, Christiane, 2024. "Multiple crises as a policy window for forest and nature a power-analysis from Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Siiskonen, Hanna & Tikkanen, Jukka & Pykäläinen, Jouni, 2025. "Policy integration and coherence of EU and Finnish forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Kirchner, M., 2025. "From narrative to actions: Theoretical framework for the integration of reframed narratives into New Zealand's agricultural policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Pecurul-Botines, M. & Giurca, A. & Pülzl, H. & Niedzialkowski, K. & Brockhaus, M. & Bouriaud, L. & Brukas, V. & Hajtmarova, S. & Hoogstra-Klein, M.A. & Konczal, A. & Marcinekova, L. & Øistad, K. & Pez, 2025. "Conflicts and policy priorities drive differences in the EU Forest strategy implementation: Insights from 15 European countries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    10. Frings, Oliver & Abildtrup, Jens & Montagné-Huck, Claire & Gorel, Salomé & Stenger, Anne, 2023. "Do individual PES buyers care about additionality and free-riding? A choice experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    11. Marie-Laure Cabon-Dhersin & Nathalie Etchart-Vincent, 2013. "Wording and gender effects in a Game of Chicken. An explorative experimental study," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00796708, HAL.
    12. Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2016. "Editorial to the Issue on Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 111-114.
    13. Ongolo, Symphorien & Giessen, Lukas & Karsenty, Alain & Tchamba, Martin & Krott, Max, 2021. "Forestland policies and politics in Africa: Recent evidence and new challenges," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Hermes, Johannes & von Haaren, Christina & Schmücker, Dirk & Albert, Christian, 2021. "Nature-based recreation in Germany: Insights into volume and economic significance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Katharina Rietig & Christine Peringer & Sarina Theys & Jecel Censoro, 2023. "Unanimity or standing aside? Reinterpreting consensus in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 221-234, September.
    16. Karbowski, Adam, 2019. "Greed and fear in downstream R&D games," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 32, pages 63-76.
    17. Md Saifur Rahman & Md Faisal Abedin Khan & Lukas Giessen, 2024. "Analysing policy changes for achieving sustainable development goals: Insights from forest, environment and climate change action plan in Bangladesh," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 508-524, May.
    18. Zhang, Pei & Zhao, Jiacheng & Krott, Max, 2023. "Strictest nature conservation: China's national park policy underpinned by power shift and turf dynamic," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    19. Wunder, Sven & Fraccaroli, Cecilia & Varela, Elsa & Bruzzese, Stefano & Termansen, Mette, 2025. "Examining innovative designs of agri-environmental schemes in Europe: A case comparison of impact pathways," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Deegen, Peter & Halbritter, Andreas, 2024. "The influence of the competition amongst pressure groups to provide ecosystem services on the optimal rotation length of forest stands," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:169:y:2024:i:c:s1389934124000844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.