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Forecasting forest-related political decisions in a climate-constrained world – The remuneration of forest ecosystem services in Germany

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  • Sprinz, Detlef F.
  • Schaefers, Tabea V.
  • Lenk, Freya
  • Krott, Max

Abstract

Political systems are under increasing pressures to respond to the impacts of climate change. We employ a numerical policy negotiation forecast model and apply it to forest-related political decisions on remunerating forest ecosystem services. Our results predict that German forest carbon sinks will be partially remunerated by government payment systems as will nature conservation efforts and climate resilient forest management. Our predictions indicate that there is substantial remaining upward pressure on each of these issues to go beyond present regulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sprinz, Detlef F. & Schaefers, Tabea V. & Lenk, Freya & Krott, Max, 2024. "Forecasting forest-related political decisions in a climate-constrained world – The remuneration of forest ecosystem services in Germany," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:169:y:2024:i:c:s1389934124000844
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stevanov, Mirjana & Krott, Max, 2021. "Embedding scientific information into forestry praxis: Explaining knowledge transfer in transdisciplinary projects by using German case," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
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    6. Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
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    9. Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
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