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The impact of sectoral shifts in industry on U.S. energy demands

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  • Huntington, Hillard G.

Abstract

Shifts among economic sectors within manufacturing have had significant effects on industrial energy demand since 1973. At least one-third of the reduction in U.S. energy intensity for fossil fuels can be attributed to sectoral shifts over this historical period. Shifts among economic sectors will continue to be an important source of uncertainty in forecasting industrial energy demand. Without greater consensus on the major causes of these shifts, analysts will be unable to separate how much of the past shifts can be reversed with changed energy and economic conditions and how much will remain embedded in the economic structure. Standard economic projections anticipate a continuation of the shift away from large industrial energy-using sectors, although at a slower rate. The Wharton economic projections used recently in an Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study indicated a decline rate of about half that experienced during the 1973–1981 period. Even so, this effect alone could contribute as much as 0.5% per annum to the rate of decline in aggregate energy intensity within manufacturing.

Suggested Citation

  • Huntington, Hillard G., 1989. "The impact of sectoral shifts in industry on U.S. energy demands," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 363-372.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:14:y:1989:i:6:p:363-372
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(89)90019-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Tol, Richard S.J. & Pacala, Stephen W. & Socolow, Robert H., 2009. "Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the USA," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 425-445, May.
    2. Yanhong Liu & Xinjian Huang & Weiliang Chen, 2019. "The Dynamic Effect of High-Tech Industries’ R&D Investment on Energy Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Gang Du & Chuanwang Sun, 2015. "Determinants of Electricity Demand in Nonmetallic Mineral Products Industry: Evidence from a Comparative Study of Japan and China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Liu, F. L. & Ang, B. W., 2003. "Eight methods for decomposing the aggregate energy-intensity of industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 15-23, September.
    5. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.

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