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Short-term load forecasting using a two-stage sarimax model

Author

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  • Tarsitano, Agostino
  • Amerise, Ilaria L.

Abstract

The primary aim of this study is to develop a new forecasting system for hourly electricity load in six Italian macro-regions. The statistical methodology is centered around a dynamic regression model in which important external predictors are included in a seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average process (sarimax). Specifically, the external variables are lagged hourly loads and calendar effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarsitano, Agostino & Amerise, Ilaria L., 2017. "Short-term load forecasting using a two-stage sarimax model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 108-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:133:y:2017:i:c:p:108-114
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.126
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    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Guo-Feng & Peng, Li-Ling & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2018. "Short term load forecasting based on phase space reconstruction algorithm and bi-square kernel regression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 13-33.
    2. Fangze Zhou & Hui Zhou & Zhaoyan Li & Kai Zhao, 2022. "Multi-Step Ahead Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using VMD-TCN and Error Correction Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-18, July.
    3. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Dezhi & Tan, Zhongfu & Zhou, Jianhua, 2018. "Short term electricity load forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 774-781.
    4. Palanisamy Manigandan & MD Shabbir Alam & Majed Alharthi & Uzma Khan & Kuppusamy Alagirisamy & Duraisamy Pachiyappan & Abdul Rehman, 2021. "Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Lee, Juyong & Cho, Youngsang, 2022. "National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    6. Dadkhah, Mojtaba & Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Zare Chavoshi, Ahmad, 2018. "Short-term power output forecasting of hourly operation in power plant based on climate factors and effects of wind direction and wind speed," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 775-788.
    7. Zhineng Hu & Jing Ma & Liangwei Yang & Liming Yao & Meng Pang, 2019. "Monthly electricity demand forecasting using empirical mode decomposition-based state space model," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(7), pages 1236-1254, November.
    8. Liang, Yi & Niu, Dongxiao & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2019. "Short term load forecasting based on feature extraction and improved general regression neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 653-663.
    9. Mohan, Neethu & Soman, K.P. & Sachin Kumar, S., 2018. "A data-driven strategy for short-term electric load forecasting using dynamic mode decomposition model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 229-244.
    10. Jeong, Dongyeon & Park, Chiwoo & Ko, Young Myoung, 2021. "Short-term electric load forecasting for buildings using logistic mixture vector autoregressive model with curve registration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    11. Xie, Guangrui & Chen, Xi & Weng, Yang, 2020. "Input modeling and uncertainty quantification for improving volatile residential load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    12. Konstantinos Plakas & Ioannis Karampinis & Panayiotis Alefragis & Alexios Birbas & Michael Birbas & Alex Papalexopoulos, 2023. "A Predictive Fuzzy Logic Model for Forecasting Electricity Day-Ahead Market Prices for Scheduling Industrial Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Lin, Ruojue & Liu, Yue & Liu, Mengru & Man, Yi, 2019. "Short term electric load forecasting model and its verification for process industrial enterprises based on hybrid GA-PSO-BPNN algorithm—A case study of papermaking process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1215-1227.
    14. Xu, Shuojiang & Chan, Hing Kai & Zhang, Tiantian, 2019. "Forecasting the demand of the aviation industry using hybrid time series SARIMA-SVR approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 169-180.
    15. Yuanyuan Zhou & Min Zhou & Qing Xia & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2019. "Construction of EMD-SVR-QGA Model for Electricity Consumption: Case of University Dormitory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Li, Wenqiang & Gong, Guangcai & Fan, Houhua & Peng, Pei & Chun, Liang, 2020. "Meta-learning strategy based on user preferences and a machine recommendation system for real-time cooling load and COP forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).

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