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Noisy fiscal policy

Author

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  • Fève, Patrick
  • Pietrunti, Mario

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a setting in which private agents receive noisy signals about future shocks to government expenditures. We show how to empirically identify the relative weight of news and noise shocks to government spending and compute the level of noise for Canada, the UK and the US. We then investigate the quantitative implications of imperfect fiscal policy information using a medium-scale DSGE model. We find that when the government seeks to implement a persistent change in expected public spending, the existence of noise (as estimated using actual data) implies a sizable difference in fiscal multipliers compared to the perfect fiscal foresight case.

Suggested Citation

  • Fève, Patrick & Pietrunti, Mario, 2016. "Noisy fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 144-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:85:y:2016:i:c:p:144-164
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.02.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Working Papers halshs-01518467, HAL.
    2. Cavalcanti, Marco A.F.H. & Vereda, Luciano & Doctors, Rebeca de B. & Lima, Felipe C. & Maynard, Lucas, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks under fiscal rules constrained by public debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 184-201.
    3. Fève, Patrick & Kass-Hanna, Tannous & Pietrunti, Mario, 2016. "An analytical characterization of noisy fiscal policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 76-79.
    4. Benhima, Kenza & Poilly, Céline, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 278-295.
    5. Zhang, Heng-Guo & CAO, Tingting & Li, Houxuan & Xu, Tiantian, 2021. "Dynamic measurement of news-driven information friction in China's carbon market: Theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Alamá-Sabater, Luisa & Heid, Benedikt & Jiménez-Fernández, Eduardo & Márquez-Ramos, Laura, 2016. "What drives interdependence of FDI among host countries? The role of geographic proximity and similarity in public debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 466-474.
    7. Jamel JOUINI, 2018. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impacts of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Saudi Economy : A Markov Switching Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 55-70, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending; Noisy information; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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