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Predicting land-use change for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation and its effect on ecosystem services in a watershed in Japan

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  • Shoyama, Kikuko
  • Yamagata, Yoshiki

Abstract

Potential conflicts between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation can result in trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aimed to detect possible changes in land-use patterns in response to biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation measures and the effects on ecosystem services across a watershed. We analyzed land-cover change based on past and future scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The analysis showed that if no conservation measures were implemented and the timber and agricultural industry remained small until 2060, supporting and provisioning services would decline due to less land management. Although biodiversity conservation measures are predicted to improve three of the ecosystem services that we studied, carbon sequestration and timber production would be improved to a greater degree by climate-change mitigation measures. The greatest land-cover changes are likely to occur in the unprotected area around the middle reaches of the Kushiro River, and such changes could affect the provision of ecosystem services throughout the entire watershed. Thus, our findings indicate that landuse decisions for the middle reaches of the watershed are particularly important for managing the integrated ecosystem services of the entire watershed for the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoyama, Kikuko & Yamagata, Yoshiki, 2014. "Predicting land-use change for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation and its effect on ecosystem services in a watershed in Japan," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 25-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoser:v:8:y:2014:i:c:p:25-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.02.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jamroon Srichaichana & Yongyut Trisurat & Suwit Ongsomwang, 2019. "Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios for Optimum Water Yield and Sediment Retention Ecosystem Services in Klong U-Tapao Watershed, Songkhla, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Shoyama, Kikuko & Yamagata, Yoshiki, 2016. "Local perception of ecosystem service bundles in the Kushiro watershed, Northern Japan – Application of a public participation GIS tool," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 139-149.
    3. Huang, Wanhui & Hashimoto, Shizuka & Yoshida, Takehito & Saito, Osamu & Taki, Kentaro, 2021. "A nature-based approach to mitigate flood risk and improve ecosystem services in Shiga, Japan," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Montoya, Daniel & Gaba, Sabrina & de Mazancourt, Claire & Bretagnolle, Vincent & Loreau, Michel, 2020. "Reconciling biodiversity conservation, food production and farmers’ demand in agricultural landscapes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 416(C).
    5. Jingwei Xu & Shiliang Liu & Shuang Zhao & Xue Wu & Xiaoyun Hou & Yi An & Zhenyao Shen, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Water Yield Service and Its Response to Urbanisation in the Beiyun River Basin, Beijing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Cui, Fengqi & Tang, Haiping & Zhang, Qin & Wang, Bojie & Dai, Luwei, 2019. "Integrating ecosystem services supply and demand into optimized management at different scales: A case study in Hulunbuir, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    7. Wang, Yahui & Dai, Erfu & Yin, Le & Ma, Liang, 2018. "Land use/land cover change and the effects on ecosystem services in the Hengduan Mountain region, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 55-67.
    8. Sunsanee Arunyawat & Rajendra P. Shrestha, 2016. "Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Shoyama, Kikuko & Kamiyama, Chiho & Morimoto, Junko & Ooba, Makoto & Okuro, Toshiya, 2017. "A review of modeling approaches for ecosystem services assessment in the Asian region," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PB), pages 316-328.
    10. van den Belt, Marjan & Stevens, Sharon M., 2016. "Transformative agenda, or lost in the translation? A review of top-cited articles in the first four years of Ecosystem Services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 60-72.
    11. Vejre, H. & Vesterager, J.P. & Andersen, P.S. & Olafsson, A.S. & Brandt, J. & Dalgaard, T., 2015. "Does cadastral division of area-based ecosystem services obstruct comprehensive management?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 295(C), pages 176-187.

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