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Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

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  • Janse, J.H.
  • Scheffer, M.
  • Lijklema, L.
  • Van Liere, L.
  • Sloot, J.S.
  • Mooij, W.M.

Abstract

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Janse, J.H. & Scheffer, M. & Lijklema, L. & Van Liere, L. & Sloot, J.S. & Mooij, W.M., 2010. "Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(4), pages 654-665.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:4:p:654-665
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.023
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Junmin & Huang, Ping & Zhang, Renduo, 2010. "Modeling the refuge effect of submerged macrophytes in ecological dynamics of shallow lakes: A new model of fish functional response," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(17), pages 2076-2085.
    2. Kong, Xiang-Zhen & Jørgensen, Sven Erik & He, Wei & Qin, Ning & Xu, Fu-Liu, 2013. "Predicting the restoration effects by a structural dynamic approach in Lake Chaohu, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 73-85.
    3. Zhang, Xiaoling & Liu, Yong & Guo, Huaicheng, 2016. "Cross-lake comparisons of physical and biological settling of phosphorus: A phosphorus budget model with Bayesian hierarchical approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 231-240.
    4. Zhang, Chen & Zhu, Zixuan & Špoljar, Maria & Kuczyńska-Kippen, Natalia & Dražina, Tvrtko & Cvetnić, Matija & Mleczek, Mirosław, 2022. "Ecosystem models indicate zooplankton biomass response to nutrient input and climate warming is related to lake size," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    5. Yi, Xuan & Zou, Rui & Guo, Huaicheng, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis of a three-dimensional nutrients-algae dynamic model for a large shallow lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 327(C), pages 74-84.
    6. Janssen, Annette B.G. & Teurlincx, Sven & Beusen, Arthur H.W. & Huijbregts, Mark A.J. & Rost, Jasmijn & Schipper, Aafke M. & Seelen, Laura M.S. & Mooij, Wolf M. & Janse, Jan H., 2019. "PCLake+: A process-based ecological model to assess the trophic state of stratified and non-stratified freshwater lakes worldwide," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 396(C), pages 23-32.
    7. Jiang, Long & Li, Yiping & Zhao, Xu & Tillotson, Martin R. & Wang, Wencai & Zhang, Shuangshuang & Sarpong, Linda & Asmaa, Qhtan & Pan, Baozhu, 2018. "Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality model in Lake Taihu, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 375(C), pages 1-12.
    8. Lopez de Gamiz-Zearra, A. & Hansen, C. & Corrales, X. & Andonegi, E., 2024. "Increasing the reliability of the Bay of Biscay Atlantis model: A sensitivity analysis to parameters perturbations using a Morris screening approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 488(C).
    9. Wu, Dongshao & Cao, Min & Gao, Wei & Duan, Zhongzhao & Zhang, Yuan, 2024. "Simulating critical nutrient loadings of regime shift in the shallow plateau Lake Dianchi," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).
    10. Li, Xiaolin & Janssen, Annette B.G. & de Klein, Jeroen J.M. & Kroeze, Carolien & Strokal, Maryna & Ma, Lin & Zheng, Yi, 2019. "Modeling nutrients in Lake Dianchi (China) and its watershed," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 48-59.
    11. Huang, Jiacong & Gao, Junfeng, 2017. "An improved Ensemble Kalman Filter for optimizing parameters in a coupled phosphorus model for lowland polders in Lake Taihu Basin, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 357(C), pages 14-22.
    12. Jacobs, Bas & van Voorn, George & van Heijster, Peter & Hengeveld, Geerten M., 2024. "Consequences of alternative stable states for short-term model-based control of cyanobacterial blooms," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 491(C).

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