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Simulating regeneration and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean coniferous forests

Author

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  • Fyllas, Nikolaos M.
  • Politi, Patrizia I.
  • Galanidis, Alexandros
  • Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G.
  • Arianoutsou, Margarita

Abstract

This study aims to provide a quantitative framework to model the dynamics of Mediterranean coniferous forests by integrating existing ecological data within a generic mathematical simulator. We developed an individual-based vegetation dynamics model, constrained on long-term field regeneration data, analyses of tree-rings and seed germination experiments. The simulator implements an asymmetric competition algorithm which is based on the location and size of each individual. Growth is parameterized through the analysis of tree-rings from more than thirty individuals of each of the three species of interest. A super-individual approach is implemented to simulate regeneration dynamics, constrained with available regeneration data across time-since-disturbance and light-availability gradients. The study concerns an insular population of an endemic to Greece Mediterranean fir (Abies cephalonica Loudon) on the island of Cephalonia (Ionian Sea) and two interacting populations of a Mediterranean pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) and a more temperate-oriented pine (Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. pallasiana) on the island of Lesbos (NE Aegean Sea), Greece. The model was validated against plot-level observations in terms of species standing biomass and regeneration vigour and adequately captured regeneration patterns and overall vegetation dynamics in both study sites. The potential effects of changing climatic patterns on the regeneration dynamics of the three species of interest were subsequently explored. With the assumption that a warmer future would probably cause changes in the duration of cold days, we tested how this change would affect the overall dynamics of the study sites, by focusing on the process of cold stratification upon seed germination. Following scenarios of a warmer future and under the current model parameterization, changes in the overall regeneration vigour controlled by a reduction in the amount of cold days, did not alter the overall dynamics in all plant populations studied. No changes were identified in the relative dominance of the interacting pine populations on Lesbos, while the observed reduction in the amount of emerging seedlings of A. cephalonica on Cephalonia did not affect biomass yield at later stages of stand development.

Suggested Citation

  • Fyllas, Nikolaos M. & Politi, Patrizia I. & Galanidis, Alexandros & Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G. & Arianoutsou, Margarita, 2010. "Simulating regeneration and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean coniferous forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(11), pages 1494-1504.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:11:p:1494-1504
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.03.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fyllas, Nikolaos M. & Phillips, Oliver L. & Kunin, William E. & Matsinos, Yiannis G. & Troumbis, Andreas I., 2007. "Development and parameterization of a general forest gap dynamics simulator for the North-eastern Mediterranean Basin (GREek FOrest Species)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 439-456.
    2. Nitschke, Craig R. & Innes, John L., 2008. "A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 263-277.
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    1. Kruse, Stefan & Wieczorek, Mareike & Jeltsch, Florian & Herzschuh, Ulrike, 2016. "Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 338(C), pages 101-121.
    2. Holm, Jennifer A. & Shugart, H.H. & Van Bloem, S.J. & Larocque, G.R., 2012. "Gap model development, validation, and application to succession of secondary subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 70-82.
    3. Kint, V. & Aertsen, W. & Fyllas, N.M. & Trabucco, A. & Janssen, E. & Özkan, K. & Muys, B., 2014. "Ecological traits of Mediterranean tree species as a basis for modelling forest dynamics in the Taurus mountains, Turkey," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 286(C), pages 53-65.

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